{"complement_to":"legacy /v1/forecast/<cc>/7day \u2014 this is the leakage-free, independently-validated rebuild","country":"TR","covered":true,"forecast":{"anomaly_rate":0.0258,"as_of_date":"2026-09-20","calibrated_probability":0.0069,"flag":false,"is_event_today":false,"measurement_count":20165,"probability":0.0092,"risk_band":"low"},"generated_at":"2026-09-21T06:21:01.813092+00:00","honest_caveats":["Performance estimate is the rolling-origin backtest (AUC ~0.82, PR-AUC ~0.29) \u2014 NOT train-set metrics. The deployed model is retrained on all data, so its train-set scores are meaningless.","Uses only OONI measurement signals (anomaly/confirmed rates, volumes, trajectories). No political-event / election / protest features yet \u2014 that is the next obvious lift.","Cross-country transfer (LOCO) is weaker for persistently-censored countries (SA/AE/EG/KZ AUC ~0.6) \u2014 the model needs some history of a country to forecast it well.","PR-AUC ~0.29 at a 10% base rate is a useful early-warning signal (precision ~0.31, recall ~0.42 at the F1-optimal threshold) \u2014 not a precise oracle."],"honest_validation":{"loco_auc_mean":0.7424014982700082,"loco_auc_median":0.7643465153580074,"method":"strict temporal rolling-origin CV, 9 folds, on independent OONI ground truth \u2014 see honest-forecast-backtest.py","rolling_origin_climatology":{"auc":0.7765669138786554,"brier":null,"f1":0.33290023229444426,"pr_auc":0.21765748104761223,"precision":0.22203720131187388,"recall":0.684821952639598},"rolling_origin_model":{"auc":0.8242937775004681,"brier":0.15277851052628222,"f1":0.321760071742322,"pr_auc":0.278997737457544,"precision":0.2945458666319437,"recall":0.3901063982909321},"rolling_origin_persistence":{"auc":0.5987551046528107,"brier":null,"f1":0.2746799209859208,"pr_auc":0.1529775782109391,"precision":0.27554691868645087,"recall":0.2739710262241073}},"horizon_days":7,"loaded":true,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","recommended_threshold":0.675,"schema":"voidly-honest-forecast/v1"}