{"generated_at":"2026-09-08T06:22:23.735823+00:00","honest_caveats":["Performance estimate is the rolling-origin backtest (AUC ~0.82, PR-AUC ~0.29) \u2014 NOT train-set metrics. The deployed model is retrained on all data, so its train-set scores are meaningless.","Uses only OONI measurement signals (anomaly/confirmed rates, volumes, trajectories). No political-event / election / protest features yet \u2014 that is the next obvious lift.","Cross-country transfer (LOCO) is weaker for persistently-censored countries (SA/AE/EG/KZ AUC ~0.6) \u2014 the model needs some history of a country to forecast it well.","PR-AUC ~0.29 at a 10% base rate is a useful early-warning signal (precision ~0.31, recall ~0.42 at the F1-optimal threshold) \u2014 not a precise oracle."],"honest_validation":{"loco_auc_mean":0.7304334998396753,"loco_auc_median":0.7458385535828835,"method":"strict temporal rolling-origin CV, 9 folds, on independent OONI ground truth \u2014 see honest-forecast-backtest.py","rolling_origin_climatology":{"auc":0.7506298345394394,"brier":null,"f1":0.3273350305787322,"pr_auc":0.2105251172631482,"precision":0.21430064156618397,"recall":0.7195970387290175},"rolling_origin_model":{"auc":0.814925684362471,"brier":0.163626135119657,"f1":0.3491103127389532,"pr_auc":0.2893116984064818,"precision":0.3038792238701136,"recall":0.4247436215812187},"rolling_origin_persistence":{"auc":0.5928618885676123,"brier":null,"f1":0.2723628412385771,"pr_auc":0.15913107883382463,"precision":0.27430172089130905,"recall":0.2706155565579624}},"horizon_days":7,"label_definition":{"baseline_window":28,"event_floor":0.08,"event_std_floor":0.01,"event_vol_min":50,"event_z":2.0,"horizon_days":7,"min_vol":30},"loaded":true,"method":"independent OONI aggregation-API ground truth, country-relative z-score event label, strict temporal rolling-origin CV \u2014 see scripts/honest-forecast-backtest.py","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","n_countries":60,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"schema":"voidly-honest-forecast-info/v1"}