{"generated_at":"2026-08-20T23:47:05.769631","honest_caveats":["Aggregates per-country predict_risk() probabilities; does NOT use a dedicated per-region model.","Weighted by 30-day evidence volume per country, not population — large evidence-collecting countries dominate the average.","A single high-risk country can pull the region average up even when most countries are quiet — see per_country for the dispersion.","MENA is a custom grouping (Northern Africa + Western Asia minus IL/CY/AM/GE/AZ); other regions follow UN M.49.","Forecast model (predict_risk) only fully calibrated for the 30 watched censorship-heavy countries; unwatched countries use raw probabilities."],"max_country":"EG","max_country_name":"Egypt","max_country_probability":0.437,"method":"evidence-volume-weighted","min_country":"RW","min_country_name":"Rwanda","min_country_probability":0.022,"model_version":"v1","n_countries":30,"n_elevated_25":1,"n_elevated_50":0,"n_failed":0,"per_country":[{"avg_risk":0.414,"country":"EG","country_name":"Egypt","day0_risk":0.394,"evidence_weight":1879,"max_risk":0.437},{"avg_risk":0.03,"country":"MA","country_name":"Morocco","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1460,"max_risk":0.064},{"avg_risk":0.021,"country":"MG","country_name":"Madagascar","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.055},{"avg_risk":0.024,"country":"DZ","country_name":"Algeria","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1480,"max_risk":0.054},{"avg_risk":0.026,"country":"LY","country_name":"Libya","day0_risk":0.015,"evidence_weight":223,"max_risk":0.054},{"avg_risk":0.024,"country":"CM","country_name":"Cameroon","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1340,"max_risk":0.053},{"avg_risk":0.024,"country":"CD","country_name":"DR 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