{"generated_at":"2026-07-06T22:30:58.373806","honest_caveats":["Aggregates per-country predict_risk() probabilities; does NOT use a dedicated per-region model.","Weighted by 30-day evidence volume per country, not population — large evidence-collecting countries dominate the average.","A single high-risk country can pull the region average up even when most countries are quiet — see per_country for the dispersion.","MENA is a custom grouping (Northern Africa + Western Asia minus IL/CY/AM/GE/AZ); other regions follow UN M.49.","Forecast model (predict_risk) only fully calibrated for the 30 watched censorship-heavy countries; unwatched countries use raw probabilities."],"max_country":"EG","max_country_name":"Egypt","max_country_probability":0.434,"method":"evidence-volume-weighted","min_country":"ET","min_country_name":"Ethiopia","min_country_probability":0.032,"model_version":"v1","n_countries":30,"n_elevated_25":2,"n_elevated_50":0,"n_failed":0,"per_country":[{"avg_risk":0.416,"country":"EG","country_name":"Egypt","day0_risk":0.384,"evidence_weight":1712,"max_risk":0.434},{"avg_risk":0.274,"country":"SD","country_name":"Sudan","day0_risk":0.273,"evidence_weight":44,"max_risk":0.299},{"avg_risk":0.062,"country":"AO","country_name":"Angola","day0_risk":0.054,"evidence_weight":6,"max_risk":0.082},{"avg_risk":0.058,"country":"CD","country_name":"DR 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