{"generated_at":"2026-08-20T23:46:36.639407","honest_caveats":["Aggregates per-country predict_risk() probabilities; does NOT use a dedicated per-region model.","Weighted by 30-day evidence volume per country, not population — large evidence-collecting countries dominate the average.","A single high-risk country can pull the region average up even when most countries are quiet — see per_country for the dispersion.","MENA is a custom grouping (Northern Africa + Western Asia minus IL/CY/AM/GE/AZ); other regions follow UN M.49.","Forecast model (predict_risk) only fully calibrated for the 30 watched censorship-heavy countries; unwatched countries use raw probabilities."],"max_country":"IS","max_country_name":"Iceland","max_country_probability":0.119,"method":"evidence-volume-weighted","min_country":"RS","min_country_name":"Serbia","min_country_probability":0.025,"model_version":"v1","n_countries":39,"n_elevated_25":0,"n_elevated_50":0,"n_failed":0,"per_country":[{"avg_risk":0.073,"country":"IS","country_name":"Iceland","day0_risk":0.051,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.119},{"avg_risk":0.057,"country":"UA","country_name":"Ukraine","day0_risk":0.047,"evidence_weight":432,"max_risk":0.086},{"avg_risk":0.032,"country":"RU","country_name":"Russia","day0_risk":0.021,"evidence_weight":9249,"max_risk":0.057},{"avg_risk":0.038,"country":"SE","country_name":"Sweden","day0_risk":0.013,"evidence_weight":1739,"max_risk":0.054},{"avg_risk":0.026,"country":"EE","country_name":"Estonia","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.053},{"avg_risk":0.023,"country":"LV","country_name":"Latvia","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.052},{"avg_risk":0.023,"country":"SI","country_name":"Slovenia","day0_risk":0.012,"evidence_weight":5,"max_risk":0.052},{"avg_risk":0.027,"country":"MD","country_name":"Moldova","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":19,"max_risk":0.051},{"avg_risk":0.017,"country":"NL","country_name":"Netherlands","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":6879,"max_risk":0.05},{"avg_risk":0.022,"country":"PT","country_name":"Portugal","day0_risk":0.013,"evidence_weight":970,"max_risk":0.05},{"avg_risk":0.026,"country":"BA","country_name":"Bosnia and Herzegovina","day0_risk":0.017,"evidence_weight":122,"max_risk":0.049},{"avg_risk":0.023,"country":"BE","country_name":"Belgium","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":899,"max_risk":0.049},{"avg_risk":0.029,"country":"BG","country_name":"Bulgaria","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":70,"max_risk":0.049},{"avg_risk":0.021,"country":"HR","country_name":"Croatia","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.048},{"avg_risk":0.022,"country":"SK","country_name":"Slovakia","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.047},{"avg_risk":0.022,"country":"CH","country_name":"Switzerland","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":792,"max_risk":0.046},{"avg_risk":0.02,"country":"IE","country_name":"Ireland","day0_risk":0.014,"evidence_weight":906,"max_risk":0.046},{"avg_risk":0.023,"country":"LU","country_name":"Luxembourg","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.046},{"avg_risk":0.022,"country":"ES","country_name":"Spain","day0_risk":0.018,"evidence_weight":6313,"max_risk":0.045},{"avg_risk":0.02,"country":"GR","country_name":"Greece","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":989,"max_risk":0.044},{"avg_risk":0.022,"country":"FI","country_name":"Finland","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1215,"max_risk":0.043},{"avg_risk":0.022,"country":"IT","country_name":"Italy","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1811,"max_risk":0.043},{"avg_risk":0.024,"country":"HU","country_name":"Hungary","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":69,"max_risk":0.042},{"avg_risk":0.019,"country":"PL","country_name":"Poland","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1542,"max_risk":0.042},{"avg_risk":0.022,"country":"BY","country_name":"Belarus","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1434,"max_risk":0.041},{"avg_risk":0.019,"country":"MK","country_name":"North Macedonia","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":10,"max_risk":0.04},{"avg_risk":0.021,"country":"FR","country_name":"France","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":2837,"max_risk":0.039},{"avg_risk":0.019,"country":"GB","country_name":"United Kingdom","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":8385,"max_risk":0.039},{"avg_risk":0.022,"country":"DK","country_name":"Denmark","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":827,"max_risk":0.038},{"avg_risk":0.02,"country":"CZ","country_name":"Czech Republic","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":871,"max_risk":0.037},{"avg_risk":0.022,"country":"RO","country_name":"Romania","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":952,"max_risk":0.037},{"avg_risk":0.017,"country":"DE","country_name":"Germany","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":12483,"max_risk":0.036},{"avg_risk":0.022,"country":"LT","country_name":"Lithuania","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":9,"max_risk":0.034},{"avg_risk":0.02,"country":"AT","country_name":"Austria","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":928,"max_risk":0.032},{"avg_risk":0.018,"country":"NO","country_name":"Norway","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":895,"max_risk":0.03},{"avg_risk":0.017,"country":"AL","country_name":"Albania","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":5,"max_risk":0.027},{"avg_risk":0.016,"country":"MC","country_name":"Monaco","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.025},{"avg_risk":0.018,"country":"ME","country_name":"Montenegro","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.025},{"avg_risk":0.015,"country":"RS","country_name":"Serbia","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":122,"max_risk":0.025}],"region":"europe","region_name":"Europe","schema":"voidly-region-forecast/v1","unweighted_mean_probability_7d":0.0453,"weighted_avg_probability_7d":0.0441,"weighted_mean_avg_risk":0.0219,"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}