{"generated_at":"2026-07-06T22:27:06.162603","honest_caveats":["Aggregates per-country predict_risk() probabilities; does NOT use a dedicated per-region model.","Weighted by 30-day evidence volume per country, not population — large evidence-collecting countries dominate the average.","A single high-risk country can pull the region average up even when most countries are quiet — see per_country for the dispersion.","MENA is a custom grouping (Northern Africa + Western Asia minus IL/CY/AM/GE/AZ); other regions follow UN M.49.","Forecast model (predict_risk) only fully calibrated for the 30 watched censorship-heavy countries; unwatched countries use raw probabilities."],"max_country":"PK","max_country_name":"Pakistan","max_country_probability":0.95,"method":"evidence-volume-weighted","min_country":"MX","min_country_name":"Mexico","min_country_probability":0.025,"model_version":"v1","n_countries":148,"n_elevated_25":4,"n_elevated_50":2,"n_failed":0,"per_country":[{"avg_risk":0.95,"country":"PK","country_name":"Pakistan","day0_risk":0.95,"evidence_weight":2088,"max_risk":0.95},{"avg_risk":0.849,"country":"UZ","country_name":"Uzbekistan","day0_risk":0.848,"evidence_weight":1044,"max_risk":0.87},{"avg_risk":0.416,"country":"EG","country_name":"Egypt","day0_risk":0.384,"evidence_weight":1712,"max_risk":0.434},{"avg_risk":0.274,"country":"SD","country_name":"Sudan","day0_risk":0.273,"evidence_weight":44,"max_risk":0.299},{"avg_risk":0.061,"country":"CU","country_name":"Cuba","day0_risk":0.033,"evidence_weight":195,"max_risk":0.123},{"avg_risk":0.1,"country":"QA","country_name":"Qatar","day0_risk":0.088,"evidence_weight":493,"max_risk":0.121},{"avg_risk":0.082,"country":"UA","country_name":"Ukraine","day0_risk":0.072,"evidence_weight":214,"max_risk":0.115},{"avg_risk":0.084,"country":"GE","country_name":"Georgia","day0_risk":0.064,"evidence_weight":156,"max_risk":0.114},{"avg_risk":0.083,"country":"JO","country_name":"Jordan","day0_risk":0.066,"evidence_weight":1230,"max_risk":0.113},{"avg_risk":0.076,"country":"CO","country_name":"Colombia","day0_risk":0.053,"evidence_weight":988,"max_risk":0.106},{"avg_risk":0.08,"country":"AR","country_name":"Argentina","day0_risk":0.072,"evidence_weight":828,"max_risk":0.101},{"avg_risk":0.075,"country":"KW","country_name":"Kuwait","day0_risk":0.066,"evidence_weight":164,"max_risk":0.098},{"avg_risk":0.079,"country":"BG","country_name":"Bulgaria","day0_risk":0.047,"evidence_weight":140,"max_risk":0.095},{"avg_risk":0.055,"country":"CZ","country_name":"Czech Republic","day0_risk":0.024,"evidence_weight":677,"max_risk":0.09},{"avg_risk":0.057,"country":"ME","country_name":"Montenegro","day0_risk":0.037,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.088},{"avg_risk":0.053,"country":"SI","country_name":"Slovenia","day0_risk":0.022,"evidence_weight":15,"max_risk":0.088},{"avg_risk":0.057,"country":"LT","country_name":"Lithuania","day0_risk":0.032,"evidence_weight":9,"max_risk":0.087},{"avg_risk":0.067,"country":"NZ","country_name":"New Zealand","day0_risk":0.056,"evidence_weight":651,"max_risk":0.087},{"avg_risk":0.056,"country":"JM","country_name":"Jamaica","day0_risk":0.035,"evidence_weight":16,"max_risk":0.086},{"avg_risk":0.058,"country":"KG","country_name":"Kyrgyzstan","day0_risk":0.041,"evidence_weight":2,"max_risk":0.086},{"avg_risk":0.058,"country":"LV","country_name":"Latvia","day0_risk":0.047,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.086},{"avg_risk":0.063,"country":"CY","country_name":"Cyprus","day0_risk":0.038,"evidence_weight":3,"max_risk":0.085},{"avg_risk":0.057,"country":"KH","country_name":"Cambodia","day0_risk":0.037,"evidence_weight":974,"max_risk":0.085},{"avg_risk":0.058,"country":"MN","country_name":"Mongolia","day0_risk":0.022,"evidence_weight":2,"max_risk":0.084},{"avg_risk":0.065,"country":"BO","country_name":"Bolivia","day0_risk":0.044,"evidence_weight":4,"max_risk":0.083},{"avg_risk":0.061,"country":"IE","country_name":"Ireland","day0_risk":0.044,"evidence_weight":657,"max_risk":0.083},{"avg_risk":0.062,"country":"AO","country_name":"Angola","day0_risk":0.054,"evidence_weight":6,"max_risk":0.082},{"avg_risk":0.058,"country":"CD","country_name":"DR Congo","day0_risk":0.044,"evidence_weight":274,"max_risk":0.082},{"avg_risk":0.054,"country":"FI","country_name":"Finland","day0_risk":0.033,"evidence_weight":690,"max_risk":0.082},{"avg_risk":0.056,"country":"LU","country_name":"Luxembourg","day0_risk":0.031,"evidence_weight":2,"max_risk":0.082},{"avg_risk":0.054,"country":"PG","country_name":"Papua New Guinea","day0_risk":0.019,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.082},{"avg_risk":0.052,"country":"SG","country_name":"Singapore","day0_risk":0.037,"evidence_weight":956,"max_risk":0.082},{"avg_risk":0.056,"country":"TN","country_name":"Tunisia","day0_risk":0.035,"evidence_weight":344,"max_risk":0.082},{"avg_risk":0.057,"country":"ZM","country_name":"Zambia","day0_risk":0.056,"evidence_weight":2,"max_risk":0.082},{"avg_risk":0.058,"country":"BE","country_name":"Belgium","day0_risk":0.046,"evidence_weight":679,"max_risk":0.081},{"avg_risk":0.049,"country":"BN","country_name":"Brunei","day0_risk":0.035,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.081},{"avg_risk":0.052,"country":"CH","country_name":"Switzerland","day0_risk":0.034,"evidence_weight":648,"max_risk":0.081},{"avg_risk":0.05,"country":"NO","country_name":"Norway","day0_risk":0.026,"evidence_weight":662,"max_risk":0.081},{"avg_risk":0.057,"country":"SE","country_name":"Sweden","day0_risk":0.047,"evidence_weight":789,"max_risk":0.081},{"avg_risk":0.051,"country":"ZW","country_name":"Zimbabwe","day0_risk":0.019,"evidence_weight":4,"max_risk":0.081},{"avg_risk":0.053,"country":"DK","country_name":"Denmark","day0_risk":0.024,"evidence_weight":628,"max_risk":0.08},{"avg_risk":0.057,"country":"IS","country_name":"Iceland","day0_risk":0.033,"evidence_weight":2,"max_risk":0.08},{"avg_risk":0.048,"country":"PS","country_name":"Palestine","day0_risk":0.045,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.08},{"avg_risk":0.064,"country":"SN","country_name":"Senegal","day0_risk":0.057,"evidence_weight":3,"max_risk":0.08},{"avg_risk":0.058,"country":"CG","country_name":"Congo","day0_risk":0.055,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.079},{"avg_risk":0.054,"country":"MG","country_name":"Madagascar","day0_risk":0.026,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.079},{"avg_risk":0.052,"country":"LK","country_name":"Sri Lanka","day0_risk":0.045,"evidence_weight":217,"max_risk":0.078},{"avg_risk":0.056,"country":"MK","country_name":"North Macedonia","day0_risk":0.041,"evidence_weight":157,"max_risk":0.078},{"avg_risk":0.053,"country":"MZ","country_name":"Mozambique","day0_risk":0.03,"evidence_weight":2,"max_risk":0.078},{"avg_risk":0.058,"country":"RW","country_name":"Rwanda","day0_risk":0.05,"evidence_weight":9,"max_risk":0.078},{"avg_risk":0.06,"country":"FJ","country_name":"Fiji","day0_risk":0.054,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.077},{"avg_risk":0.053,"country":"HR","country_name":"Croatia","day0_risk":0.038,"evidence_weight":8,"max_risk":0.077},{"avg_risk":0.059,"country":"BF","country_name":"Burkina Faso","day0_risk":0.043,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.076},{"avg_risk":0.055,"country":"BT","country_name":"Bhutan","day0_risk":0.036,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.076},{"avg_risk":0.061,"country":"CR","country_name":"Costa Rica","day0_risk":0.033,"evidence_weight":7,"max_risk":0.076},{"avg_risk":0.056,"country":"MD","country_name":"Moldova","day0_risk":0.053,"evidence_weight":8,"max_risk":0.076},{"avg_risk":0.058,"country":"SK","country_name":"Slovakia","day0_risk":0.056,"evidence_weight":9,"max_risk":0.076},{"avg_risk":0.049,"country":"BH","country_name":"Bahrain","day0_risk":0.031,"evidence_weight":218,"max_risk":0.075},{"avg_risk":0.055,"country":"CM","country_name":"Cameroon","day0_risk":0.024,"evidence_weight":790,"max_risk":0.075},{"avg_risk":0.054,"country":"AT","country_name":"Austria","day0_risk":0.039,"evidence_weight":653,"max_risk":0.074},{"avg_risk":0.056,"country":"HN","country_name":"Honduras","day0_risk":0.053,"evidence_weight":129,"max_risk":0.074},{"avg_risk":0.056,"country":"HU","country_name":"Hungary","day0_risk":0.045,"evidence_weight":42,"max_risk":0.074},{"avg_risk":0.055,"country":"MV","country_name":"Maldives","day0_risk":0.03,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.074},{"avg_risk":0.053,"country":"UY","country_name":"Uruguay","day0_risk":0.04,"evidence_weight":15,"max_risk":0.074},{"avg_risk":0.054,"country":"EE","country_name":"Estonia","day0_risk":0.028,"evidence_weight":3,"max_risk":0.073},{"avg_risk":0.052,"country":"LA","country_name":"Laos","day0_risk":0.049,"evidence_weight":6,"max_risk":0.073},{"avg_risk":0.056,"country":"MC","country_name":"Monaco","day0_risk":0.053,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.073},{"avg_risk":0.053,"country":"PR","country_name":"Puerto Rico","day0_risk":0.022,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.072},{"avg_risk":0.06,"country":"AF","country_name":"Afghanistan","day0_risk":0.033,"evidence_weight":10,"max_risk":0.07},{"avg_risk":0.054,"country":"GA","country_name":"Gabon","day0_risk":0.029,"evidence_weight":6,"max_risk":0.07},{"avg_risk":0.055,"country":"HT","country_name":"Haiti","day0_risk":0.028,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.069},{"avg_risk":0.054,"country":"NL","country_name":"Netherlands","day0_risk":0.023,"evidence_weight":984,"max_risk":0.068},{"avg_risk":0.048,"country":"UG","country_name":"Uganda","day0_risk":0.036,"evidence_weight":788,"max_risk":0.068},{"avg_risk":0.052,"country":"GT","country_name":"Guatemala","day0_risk":0.051,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.067},{"avg_risk":0.056,"country":"PA","country_name":"Panama","day0_risk":0.052,"evidence_weight":4,"max_risk":0.067},{"avg_risk":0.052,"country":"BW","country_name":"Botswana","day0_risk":0.04,"evidence_weight":3,"max_risk":0.066},{"avg_risk":0.053,"country":"TJ","country_name":"Tajikistan","day0_risk":0.057,"evidence_weight":2,"max_risk":0.066},{"avg_risk":0.051,"country":"RO","country_name":"Romania","day0_risk":0.023,"evidence_weight":855,"max_risk":0.065},{"avg_risk":0.051,"country":"GH","country_name":"Ghana","day0_risk":0.043,"evidence_weight":6,"max_risk":0.064},{"avg_risk":0.051,"country":"AL","country_name":"Albania","day0_risk":0.028,"evidence_weight":2,"max_risk":0.062},{"avg_risk":0.029,"country":"PY","country_name":"Paraguay","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":9,"max_risk":0.062},{"avg_risk":0.025,"country":"NP","country_name":"Nepal","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":66,"max_risk":0.061},{"avg_risk":0.025,"country":"PT","country_name":"Portugal","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":803,"max_risk":0.06},{"avg_risk":0.034,"country":"AE","country_name":"United Arab Emirates","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1839,"max_risk":0.059},{"avg_risk":0.023,"country":"KR","country_name":"South Korea","day0_risk":0.016,"evidence_weight":1124,"max_risk":0.059},{"avg_risk":0.026,"country":"KZ","country_name":"Kazakhstan","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1504,"max_risk":0.059},{"avg_risk":0.021,"country":"PL","country_name":"Poland","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1038,"max_risk":0.059},{"avg_risk":0.033,"country":"TZ","country_name":"Tanzania","day0_risk":0.017,"evidence_weight":785,"max_risk":0.059},{"avg_risk":0.026,"country":"MM","country_name":"Myanmar","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1752,"max_risk":0.058},{"avg_risk":0.03,"country":"RS","country_name":"Serbia","day0_risk":0.015,"evidence_weight":146,"max_risk":0.056},{"avg_risk":0.026,"country":"DE","country_name":"Germany","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1226,"max_risk":0.055},{"avg_risk":0.032,"country":"KE","country_name":"Kenya","day0_risk":0.024,"evidence_weight":156,"max_risk":0.055},{"avg_risk":0.029,"country":"TO","country_name":"Tonga","day0_risk":0.021,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.055},{"avg_risk":0.035,"country":"IT","country_name":"Italy","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1479,"max_risk":0.054},{"avg_risk":0.027,"country":"BY","country_name":"Belarus","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1434,"max_risk":0.053},{"avg_risk":0.032,"country":"LB","country_name":"Lebanon","day0_risk":0.018,"evidence_weight":151,"max_risk":0.052},{"avg_risk":0.026,"country":"AU","country_name":"Australia","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":880,"max_risk":0.051},{"avg_risk":0.025,"country":"GR","country_name":"Greece","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":798,"max_risk":0.051},{"avg_risk":0.031,"country":"TW","country_name":"Taiwan","day0_risk":0.023,"evidence_weight":171,"max_risk":0.051},{"avg_risk":0.027,"country":"ZA","country_name":"South Africa","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":854,"max_risk":0.051},{"avg_risk":0.036,"country":"AZ","country_name":"Azerbaijan","day0_risk":0.023,"evidence_weight":957,"max_risk":0.05},{"avg_risk":0.032,"country":"CI","country_name":"Ivory Coast","day0_risk":0.021,"evidence_weight":59,"max_risk":0.05},{"avg_risk":0.027,"country":"CL","country_name":"Chile","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":718,"max_risk":0.05},{"avg_risk":0.02,"country":"LY","country_name":"Libya","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1044,"max_risk":0.05},{"avg_risk":0.03,"country":"AM","country_name":"Armenia","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":144,"max_risk":0.049},{"avg_risk":0.03,"country":"DZ","country_name":"Algeria","day0_risk":0.017,"evidence_weight":1034,"max_risk":0.049},{"avg_risk":0.025,"country":"EC","country_name":"Ecuador","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":20,"max_risk":0.049},{"avg_risk":0.02,"country":"ER","country_name":"Eritrea","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.049},{"avg_risk":0.03,"country":"ML","country_name":"Mali","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":2,"max_risk":0.049},{"avg_risk":0.024,"country":"SY","country_name":"Syria","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":862,"max_risk":0.049},{"avg_risk":0.029,"country":"WS","country_name":"Samoa","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.049},{"avg_risk":0.027,"country":"DO","country_name":"Dominican Republic","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":14,"max_risk":0.048},{"avg_risk":0.025,"country":"FR","country_name":"France","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1133,"max_risk":0.048},{"avg_risk":0.02,"country":"TR","country_name":"Turkey","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":2843,"max_risk":0.048},{"avg_risk":0.03,"country":"HK","country_name":"Hong Kong","day0_risk":0.025,"evidence_weight":139,"max_risk":0.047},{"avg_risk":0.025,"country":"OM","country_name":"Oman","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":648,"max_risk":0.047},{"avg_risk":0.03,"country":"JP","country_name":"Japan","day0_risk":0.021,"evidence_weight":1007,"max_risk":0.046},{"avg_risk":0.027,"country":"US","country_name":"United States","day0_risk":0.018,"evidence_weight":1090,"max_risk":0.046},{"avg_risk":0.026,"country":"IN","country_name":"India","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":3741,"max_risk":0.045},{"avg_risk":0.032,"country":"MY","country_name":"Malaysia","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":662,"max_risk":0.045},{"avg_risk":0.024,"country":"NI","country_name":"Nicaragua","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":23,"max_risk":0.045},{"avg_risk":0.028,"country":"IL","country_name":"Israel","day0_risk":0.015,"evidence_weight":158,"max_risk":0.044},{"avg_risk":0.026,"country":"TH","country_name":"Thailand","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1819,"max_risk":0.044},{"avg_risk":0.018,"country":"TM","country_name":"Turkmenistan","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":4,"max_risk":0.044},{"avg_risk":0.021,"country":"BD","country_name":"Bangladesh","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1918,"max_risk":0.043},{"avg_risk":0.027,"country":"PE","country_name":"Peru","day0_risk":0.015,"evidence_weight":64,"max_risk":0.043},{"avg_risk":0.023,"country":"PH","country_name":"Philippines","day0_risk":0.025,"evidence_weight":238,"max_risk":0.043},{"avg_risk":0.026,"country":"ES","country_name":"Spain","day0_risk":0.015,"evidence_weight":955,"max_risk":0.042},{"avg_risk":0.026,"country":"GB","country_name":"United Kingdom","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1230,"max_risk":0.042},{"avg_risk":0.026,"country":"ID","country_name":"Indonesia","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":2241,"max_risk":0.042},{"avg_risk":0.023,"country":"IQ","country_name":"Iraq","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1530,"max_risk":0.042},{"avg_risk":0.022,"country":"MA","country_name":"Morocco","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1404,"max_risk":0.042},{"avg_risk":0.021,"country":"CA","country_name":"Canada","day0_risk":0.013,"evidence_weight":1047,"max_risk":0.041},{"avg_risk":0.023,"country":"BA","country_name":"Bosnia and Herzegovina","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":12,"max_risk":0.04},{"avg_risk":0.028,"country":"BR","country_name":"Brazil","day0_risk":0.023,"evidence_weight":1068,"max_risk":0.04},{"avg_risk":0.024,"country":"SA","country_name":"Saudi Arabia","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1802,"max_risk":0.04},{"avg_risk":0.023,"country":"IR","country_name":"Iran","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":5248,"max_risk":0.038},{"avg_risk":0.025,"country":"VE","country_name":"Venezuela","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":2471,"max_risk":0.038},{"avg_risk":0.017,"country":"CN","country_name":"China","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":2653,"max_risk":0.036},{"avg_risk":0.022,"country":"NE","country_name":"Niger","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.036},{"avg_risk":0.018,"country":"VN","country_name":"Vietnam","day0_risk":0.015,"evidence_weight":1575,"max_risk":0.036},{"avg_risk":0.025,"country":"GU","country_name":"Guam","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":2,"max_risk":0.035},{"avg_risk":0.028,"country":"NG","country_name":"Nigeria","day0_risk":0.031,"evidence_weight":46,"max_risk":0.035},{"avg_risk":0.023,"country":"KP","country_name":"North Korea","day0_risk":0.014,"evidence_weight":1,"max_risk":0.034},{"avg_risk":0.02,"country":"ET","country_name":"Ethiopia","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1359,"max_risk":0.032},{"avg_risk":0.02,"country":"YE","country_name":"Yemen","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":712,"max_risk":0.031},{"avg_risk":0.02,"country":"RU","country_name":"Russia","day0_risk":0.011,"evidence_weight":9973,"max_risk":0.029},{"avg_risk":0.018,"country":"MX","country_name":"Mexico","day0_risk":0.01,"evidence_weight":1069,"max_risk":0.025}],"region":"world","region_name":"World","schema":"voidly-region-forecast/v1","unweighted_mean_probability_7d":0.0804,"weighted_avg_probability_7d":0.0871,"weighted_mean_avg_risk":0.0674,"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}