{"generated_at":"2026-10-03T17:33:54.054308","method":"evidence-volume-weighted","n_regions":7,"regions":[{"generated_at":"2026-10-03T17:33:51.247115","honest_caveats":["Aggregates per-country predict_risk() probabilities; does NOT use a dedicated per-region model.","Weighted by 30-day evidence volume per country, not population \u2014 large evidence-collecting countries dominate the average.","A single high-risk country can pull the region average up even when most countries are quiet \u2014 see per_country for the dispersion.","MENA is a custom grouping (Northern Africa + Western Asia minus IL/CY/AM/GE/AZ); other regions follow UN M.49.","Forecast model (predict_risk) only fully calibrated for the 30 watched censorship-heavy countries; unwatched countries use raw probabilities."],"max_country":"EG","max_country_name":"Egypt","max_country_probability":0.447,"method":"evidence-volume-weighted","min_country":"PS","min_country_name":"Palestine","min_country_probability":0.026,"model_version":"v1","n_countries":19,"n_elevated_25":2,"n_elevated_50":0,"n_failed":0,"region":"mena","region_name":"MENA","schema":"voidly-region-forecast/v1","unweighted_mean_probability_7d":0.0771,"weighted_avg_probability_7d":0.1444,"weighted_mean_avg_risk":0.1197},{"generated_at":"2026-10-03T17:33:50.847445","honest_caveats":["Aggregates per-country predict_risk() probabilities; does NOT use a dedicated per-region model.","Weighted by 30-day evidence volume per country, not population \u2014 large evidence-collecting countries dominate the average.","A single high-risk country can pull the region average up even when most countries are quiet \u2014 see per_country for the dispersion.","MENA is a custom grouping (Northern Africa + Western Asia minus IL/CY/AM/GE/AZ); other regions follow UN M.49.","Forecast model (predict_risk) only fully calibrated for the 30 watched censorship-heavy countries; unwatched countries use raw probabilities."],"max_country":"RU","max_country_name":"Russia","max_country_probability":0.653,"method":"evidence-volume-weighted","min_country":"BY","min_country_name":"Belarus","min_country_probability":0.028,"model_version":"v1","n_countries":39,"n_elevated_25":2,"n_elevated_50":1,"n_failed":0,"region":"europe","region_name":"Europe","schema":"voidly-region-forecast/v1","unweighted_mean_probability_7d":0.0765,"weighted_avg_probability_7d":0.1136,"weighted_mean_avg_risk":0.0861},{"generated_at":"2026-10-03T17:33:50.082490","honest_caveats":["Aggregates per-country predict_risk() probabilities; does NOT use a dedicated per-region model.","Weighted by 30-day evidence volume per country, not population \u2014 large evidence-collecting countries dominate the average.","A single high-risk country can pull the region average up even when most countries are quiet \u2014 see per_country for the dispersion.","MENA is a custom grouping (Northern Africa + Western Asia minus IL/CY/AM/GE/AZ); other regions follow UN M.49.","Forecast model (predict_risk) only fully calibrated for the 30 watched censorship-heavy countries; unwatched countries use raw probabilities."],"max_country":"PK","max_country_name":"Pakistan","max_country_probability":0.95,"method":"evidence-volume-weighted","min_country":"TM","min_country_name":"Turkmenistan","min_country_probability":0.024,"model_version":"v1","n_countries":49,"n_elevated_25":4,"n_elevated_50":2,"n_failed":0,"region":"asia","region_name":"Asia","schema":"voidly-region-forecast/v1","unweighted_mean_probability_7d":0.0836,"weighted_avg_probability_7d":0.112,"weighted_mean_avg_risk":0.0906},{"generated_at":"2026-10-03T17:33:54.054199","honest_caveats":["Aggregates per-country predict_risk() probabilities; does NOT use a dedicated per-region model.","Weighted by 30-day evidence volume per country, not population \u2014 large evidence-collecting countries dominate the average.","A single high-risk country can pull the region average up even when most countries are quiet \u2014 see per_country for the dispersion.","MENA is a custom grouping (Northern Africa + Western Asia minus IL/CY/AM/GE/AZ); other regions follow UN M.49.","Forecast model (predict_risk) only fully calibrated for the 30 watched censorship-heavy countries; unwatched countries use raw probabilities."],"max_country":"PK","max_country_name":"Pakistan","max_country_probability":0.95,"method":"evidence-volume-weighted","min_country":"TM","min_country_name":"Turkmenistan","min_country_probability":0.024,"model_version":"v1","n_countries":148,"n_elevated_25":7,"n_elevated_50":3,"n_failed":0,"region":"world","region_name":"World","schema":"voidly-region-forecast/v1","unweighted_mean_probability_7d":0.069,"weighted_avg_probability_7d":0.097,"weighted_mean_avg_risk":0.0692},{"generated_at":"2026-10-03T17:33:48.728807","honest_caveats":["Aggregates per-country predict_risk() probabilities; does NOT use a dedicated per-region model.","Weighted by 30-day evidence volume per country, not population \u2014 large evidence-collecting countries dominate the average.","A single high-risk country can pull the region average up even when most countries are quiet \u2014 see per_country for the dispersion.","MENA is a custom grouping (Northern Africa + Western Asia minus IL/CY/AM/GE/AZ); other regions follow UN M.49.","Forecast model (predict_risk) only fully calibrated for the 30 watched censorship-heavy countries; unwatched countries use raw probabilities."],"max_country":"EG","max_country_name":"Egypt","max_country_probability":0.447,"method":"evidence-volume-weighted","min_country":"CI","min_country_name":"Ivory Coast","min_country_probability":0.028,"model_version":"v1","n_countries":30,"n_elevated_25":1,"n_elevated_50":0,"n_failed":0,"region":"africa","region_name":"Africa","schema":"voidly-region-forecast/v1","unweighted_mean_probability_7d":0.0566,"weighted_avg_probability_7d":0.0776,"weighted_mean_avg_risk":0.0566},{"generated_at":"2026-10-03T17:33:49.226693","honest_caveats":["Aggregates per-country predict_risk() probabilities; does NOT use a dedicated per-region model.","Weighted by 30-day evidence volume per country, not population \u2014 large evidence-collecting countries dominate the average.","A single high-risk country can pull the region average up even when most countries are quiet \u2014 see per_country for the dispersion.","MENA is a custom grouping (Northern Africa + Western Asia minus IL/CY/AM/GE/AZ); other regions follow UN M.49.","Forecast model (predict_risk) only fully calibrated for the 30 watched censorship-heavy countries; unwatched countries use raw probabilities."],"max_country":"BR","max_country_name":"Brazil","max_country_probability":0.142,"method":"evidence-volume-weighted","min_country":"UY","min_country_name":"Uruguay","min_country_probability":0.032,"model_version":"v1","n_countries":23,"n_elevated_25":0,"n_elevated_50":0,"n_failed":0,"region":"americas","region_name":"Americas","schema":"voidly-region-forecast/v1","unweighted_mean_probability_7d":0.049,"weighted_avg_probability_7d":0.0745,"weighted_mean_avg_risk":0.0346},{"generated_at":"2026-10-03T17:33:50.965187","honest_caveats":["Aggregates per-country predict_risk() probabilities; does NOT use a dedicated per-region model.","Weighted by 30-day evidence volume per country, not population \u2014 large evidence-collecting countries dominate the average.","A single high-risk country can pull the region average up even when most countries are quiet \u2014 see per_country for the dispersion.","MENA is a custom grouping (Northern Africa + Western Asia minus IL/CY/AM/GE/AZ); other regions follow UN M.49.","Forecast model (predict_risk) only fully calibrated for the 30 watched censorship-heavy countries; unwatched countries use raw probabilities."],"max_country":"NZ","max_country_name":"New Zealand","max_country_probability":0.068,"method":"evidence-volume-weighted","min_country":"AU","min_country_name":"Australia","min_country_probability":0.033,"model_version":"v1","n_countries":7,"n_elevated_25":0,"n_elevated_50":0,"n_failed":0,"region":"oceania","region_name":"Oceania","schema":"voidly-region-forecast/v1","unweighted_mean_probability_7d":0.0447,"weighted_avg_probability_7d":0.0357,"weighted_mean_avg_risk":0.0171}],"schema":"voidly-region-forecast-list/v1"}