{"available": true, "country_code": "UZ", "data_age_hours": 3274.4, "data_as_of": "2026-05-21T14:30:32.800077Z", "data_freshness_note": "Any served_at/generated_at above is when this RESPONSE was assembled, not when the model ran. This artifact was last written 2026-05-21T14:30:32.800077Z (136.4 days ago). Cite data_as_of.", "data_source_artifact": "[internal path]", "data_stale": true, "honest_caveats": ["Block rate is a noisy proxy for shutdown probability; what we model is the long-run blocking rate of evidence rows, not the day-level shutdown likelihood.", "Algorithm selected by LOOCV bake-off across Ridge + GBM variants \u2014 winner: gbm_shallow. Other candidates and their LOOCV R\u00b2 are in 'candidates_loocv'.", "Countries with <20 evidence rows in the 365-day LABEL window were excluded from training, EXCEPT when they appear in TAIL_COUNTRIES (so we can score the v3.3 regressors).", "Historical features use a window 365-730 days ago (disjoint from the label window) to prevent target leakage. Initial v1 had a leakage path through mean_block_rate_365d \u2014 fixed before promote.", "90% CI is from residual_std (normal approx); on countries with structural traits unseen in training the CI may understate uncertainty.", "Gulf states (BH, KW, QA) have empirical block rates of 68-88% \u2014 well above anything else in training distribution. The model under-predicts them by 30-45pp, but still beats v3.3's flat prior on the median tail country (+16pp).", "This is a country-level meta-model. It does NOT replace v3.3 for countries where v3.3 already performs well; it is a SECOND OPINION for the long tail."], "in_training_set": true, "metrics": {"loocv_mae": 0.1021555956167691, "loocv_r2": 0.4865100877646761, "residual_std": 0.15448343351535807}, "model": "zero-shot-transfer-v1", "n_evidence_label_window": 711, "n_incidents_hist": 0, "pred_block_rate": 0.4477281948487498, "pred_interval_90": {"hi": 0.7018534429815138, "lo": 0.19360294671598582}, "promoted": true, "served_at": "2026-10-05T00:51:54.665370Z"}