{"algorithm":"gbm_shallow on raw meta-features","candidates_loocv":{"gbm":{"loocv_mae":0.09781177082936213,"loocv_r2":0.46775057612632687,"loocv_rmse":0.15735667342251441},"gbm_shallow":{"loocv_mae":0.1021555956167691,"loocv_r2":0.4865100877646761,"loocv_rmse":0.15455872408752694},"gbm_wide":{"loocv_mae":0.09830836254155569,"loocv_r2":0.45259513408498697,"loocv_rmse":0.1595812610450636},"ridge":{"loocv_mae":0.12778946624669113,"loocv_r2":0.2447349751710748,"loocv_rmse":0.1874464641728791},"ridge_strong":{"loocv_mae":0.12349907210589642,"loocv_r2":0.3133887883246811,"loocv_rmse":0.17872405574413974}},"honest_caveats":["Block rate is a noisy proxy for shutdown probability; what we model is the long-run blocking rate of evidence rows, not the day-level shutdown likelihood.","Algorithm selected by LOOCV bake-off across Ridge + GBM variants — winner: gbm_shallow. Other candidates and their LOOCV R² are in 'candidates_loocv'.","Countries with <20 evidence rows in the 365-day LABEL window were excluded from training, EXCEPT when they appear in TAIL_COUNTRIES (so we can score the v3.3 regressors).","Historical features use a window 365-730 days ago (disjoint from the label window) to prevent target leakage. Initial v1 had a leakage path through mean_block_rate_365d — fixed before promote.","90% CI is from residual_std (normal approx); on countries with structural traits unseen in training the CI may understate uncertainty.","Gulf states (BH, KW, QA) have empirical block rates of 68-88% — well above anything else in training distribution. The model under-predicts them by 30-45pp, but still beats v3.3's flat prior on the median tail country (+16pp).","This is a country-level meta-model. It does NOT replace v3.3 for countries where v3.3 already performs well; it is a SECOND OPINION for the long tail."],"in_sample_r2":0.7845894484925068,"loocv_mae":0.1021555956167691,"loocv_r2":0.4865100877646761,"loocv_rmse":0.15455872408752694,"model":"zero-shot-transfer-v1","n_all_countries":148,"n_features":39,"n_training_countries":119,"promote_floor_r2":0.3,"promote_floor_tail_beats_v33":9,"promote_floor_tail_median_improvement_pp":0,"promoted":true,"residual_std":0.15448343351535807,"selected_candidate":"gbm_shallow","tail_beats_v33_count":10,"tail_country_evaluation":[{"country_code":"TN","empirical_block_rate":0.6557971014492754,"improvement_pp":31.956551013580036,"n_evidence_label_window":276,"n_incidents_hist":0,"v33_abs_err":0.4882951392503291,"v33_prior_pred":0.16750196219894634,"zero_shot_abs_err":0.1687296291145287,"zero_shot_pred":0.4870674723347467},{"country_code":"JO","empirical_block_rate":0.4992764109985528,"improvement_pp":27.334157628606537,"n_evidence_label_window":691,"n_incidents_hist":0,"v33_abs_err":0.3317744487996065,"v33_prior_pred":0.16750196219894634,"zero_shot_abs_err":0.05843287251354112,"zero_shot_pred":0.5577092835120939},{"country_code":"QA","empirical_block_rate":0.8793103448275862,"improvement_pp":27.080745634045968,"n_evidence_label_window":696,"n_incidents_hist":0,"v33_abs_err":0.7118083826286399,"v33_prior_pred":0.16750196219894634,"zero_shot_abs_err":0.4410009262881802,"zero_shot_pred":0.43830941853940597},{"country_code":"UZ","empirical_block_rate":0.4444444444444444,"improvement_pp":22.20576641729709,"n_evidence_label_window":711,"n_incidents_hist":0,"v33_abs_err":0.2769424822454981,"v33_prior_pred":0.16750196219894634,"zero_shot_abs_err":0.05488481807252721,"zero_shot_pred":0.49932926251697163},{"country_code":"SY","empirical_block_rate":0.4630225080385852,"improvement_pp":20.403261855799144,"n_evidence_label_window":622,"n_incidents_hist":0,"v33_abs_err":0.2955205458396388,"v33_prior_pred":0.16750196219894634,"zero_shot_abs_err":0.0914879272816474,"zero_shot_pred":0.5545104353202326},{"country_code":"LY","empirical_block_rate":0.4192495921696574,"improvement_pp":19.21448663081694,"n_evidence_label_window":613,"n_incidents_hist":0,"v33_abs_err":0.2517476299707111,"v33_prior_pred":0.16750196219894634,"zero_shot_abs_err":0.05960276366254169,"zero_shot_pred":0.4788523558321991},{"country_code":"OM","empirical_block_rate":0.37453874538745385,"improvement_pp":17.936595048157425,"n_evidence_label_window":542,"n_incidents_hist":1,"v33_abs_err":0.20703678318850752,"v33_prior_pred":0.16750196219894634,"zero_shot_abs_err":0.027670832706933268,"zero_shot_pred":0.4022095780943871},{"country_code":"MA","empirical_block_rate":0.5256776034236804,"improvement_pp":16.368318681007654,"n_evidence_label_window":1402,"n_incidents_hist":0,"v33_abs_err":0.3581756412247341,"v33_prior_pred":0.16750196219894634,"zero_shot_abs_err":0.19449245441465757,"zero_shot_pred":0.33118514900902285},{"country_code":"YE","empirical_block_rate":0.5473887814313346,"improvement_pp":16.02155977497473,"n_evidence_label_window":517,"n_incidents_hist":0,"v33_abs_err":0.3798868192323883,"v33_prior_pred":0.16750196219894634,"zero_shot_abs_err":0.219671221482641,"zero_shot_pred":0.3277175599486936},{"country_code":"BH","empirical_block_rate":0.6772486772486772,"improvement_pp":0.1861407840022422,"n_evidence_label_window":378,"n_incidents_hist":0,"v33_abs_err":0.5097467150497309,"v33_prior_pred":0.16750196219894634,"zero_shot_abs_err":0.5078853072097085,"zero_shot_pred":0.16936337003896867},{"country_code":"TJ","empirical_block_rate":0.037037037037037035,"improvement_pp":-4.129473449923696,"n_evidence_label_window":27,"n_incidents_hist":0,"v33_abs_err":0.1304649251619093,"v33_prior_pred":0.16750196219894634,"zero_shot_abs_err":0.17175965966114626,"zero_shot_pred":0.2087966966981833},{"country_code":"TM","empirical_block_rate":0.2978723404255319,"improvement_pp":-4.45899897647856,"n_evidence_label_window":47,"n_incidents_hist":1,"v33_abs_err":0.13037037822658556,"v33_prior_pred":0.16750196219894634,"zero_shot_abs_err":0.17496036799137116,"zero_shot_pred":0.12291197243416073},{"country_code":"KW","empirical_block_rate":0.7630057803468208,"improvement_pp":-8.217852093125199,"n_evidence_label_window":173,"n_incidents_hist":0,"v33_abs_err":0.5955038181478745,"v33_prior_pred":0.16750196219894634,"zero_shot_abs_err":0.6776823390791265,"zero_shot_pred":0.08532344126769432},{"country_code":"KG","empirical_block_rate":0.34375,"improvement_pp":-10.302971990839957,"n_evidence_label_window":32,"n_incidents_hist":0,"v33_abs_err":0.17624803780105366,"v33_prior_pred":0.16750196219894634,"zero_shot_abs_err":0.27927775770945323,"zero_shot_pred":0.06447224229054678},{"country_code":"DZ","empirical_block_rate":0.2586750788643533,"improvement_pp":-10.805797397408936,"n_evidence_label_window":1268,"n_incidents_hist":1,"v33_abs_err":0.09117311666540698,"v33_prior_pred":0.16750196219894634,"zero_shot_abs_err":0.19923109063949634,"zero_shot_pred":0.45790616950384966},{"country_code":"IQ","empirical_block_rate":0.2048894062863795,"improvement_p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