{"algorithm": "gbm_shallow on raw meta-features", "candidates_loocv": {"gbm": {"loocv_mae": 0.09781177082936213, "loocv_r2": 0.46775057612632687, "loocv_rmse": 0.15735667342251441}, "gbm_shallow": {"loocv_mae": 0.1021555956167691, "loocv_r2": 0.4865100877646761, "loocv_rmse": 0.15455872408752694}, "gbm_wide": {"loocv_mae": 0.09830836254155569, "loocv_r2": 0.45259513408498697, "loocv_rmse": 0.1595812610450636}, "ridge": {"loocv_mae": 0.12778946624669113, "loocv_r2": 0.2447349751710748, "loocv_rmse": 0.1874464641728791}, "ridge_strong": {"loocv_mae": 0.12349907210589642, "loocv_r2": 0.3133887883246811, "loocv_rmse": 0.17872405574413974}}, "honest_caveats": ["Block rate is a noisy proxy for shutdown probability; what we model is the long-run blocking rate of evidence rows, not the day-level shutdown likelihood.", "Algorithm selected by LOOCV bake-off across Ridge + GBM variants \u2014 winner: gbm_shallow. Other candidates and their LOOCV R\u00b2 are in 'candidates_loocv'.", "Countries with <20 evidence rows in the 365-day LABEL window were excluded from training, EXCEPT when they appear in TAIL_COUNTRIES (so we can score the v3.3 regressors).", "Historical features use a window 365-730 days ago (disjoint from the label window) to prevent target leakage. Initial v1 had a leakage path through mean_block_rate_365d \u2014 fixed before promote.", "90% CI is from residual_std (normal approx); on countries with structural traits unseen in training the CI may understate uncertainty.", "Gulf states (BH, KW, QA) have empirical block rates of 68-88% \u2014 well above anything else in training distribution. The model under-predicts them by 30-45pp, but still beats v3.3's flat prior on the median tail country (+16pp).", "This is a country-level meta-model. It does NOT replace v3.3 for countries where v3.3 already performs well; it is a SECOND OPINION for the long tail."], "in_sample_r2": 0.7845894484925068, "loocv_mae": 0.1021555956167691, "loocv_r2": 0.4865100877646761, "loocv_rmse": 0.15455872408752694, "model": "zero-shot-transfer-v1", "n_all_countries": 148, "n_features": 39, "n_training_countries": 119, "promote_floor_r2": 0.3, "promote_floor_tail_beats_v33": 9, "promote_floor_tail_median_improvement_pp": 0.0, "promoted": true, "residual_std": 0.15448343351535807, "selected_candidate": "gbm_shallow", "tail_beats_v33_count": 10, "tail_country_evaluation": [{"country_code": "TN", "empirical_block_rate": 0.6557971014492754, "improvement_pp": 31.956551013580036, "n_evidence_label_window": 276, "n_incidents_hist": 0, "v33_abs_err": 0.4882951392503291, "v33_prior_pred": 0.16750196219894634, "zero_shot_abs_err": 0.1687296291145287, "zero_shot_pred": 0.4870674723347467}, {"country_code": "JO", "empirical_block_rate": 0.4992764109985528, "improvement_pp": 27.334157628606537, "n_evidence_label_window": 691, "n_incidents_hist": 0, "v33_abs_err": 0.3317744487996065, "v33_prior_pred": 0.16750196219894634, "zero_shot_abs_err": 0.05843287251354112, "zero_shot_pred": 0.5577092835120939}, {"country_code": "QA", "empirical_block_rate": 0.8793103448275862, "improvement_pp": 27.080745634045968, "n_evidence_label_window": 696, "n_incidents_hist": 0, "v33_abs_err": 0.7118083826286399, "v33_prior_pred": 0.16750196219894634, "zero_shot_abs_err": 0.4410009262881802, "zero_shot_pred": 0.43830941853940597}, {"country_code": "UZ", "empirical_block_rate": 0.4444444444444444, "improvement_pp": 22.20576641729709, "n_evidence_label_window": 711, "n_incidents_hist": 0, "v33_abs_err": 0.2769424822454981, "v33_prior_pred": 0.16750196219894634, "zero_shot_abs_err": 0.05488481807252721, "zero_shot_pred": 0.49932926251697163}, {"country_code": "SY", "empirical_block_rate": 0.4630225080385852, "improvement_pp": 20.403261855799144, 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0, "v33_abs_err": 0.3581756412247341, "v33_prior_pred": 0.16750196219894634, "zero_shot_abs_err": 0.19449245441465757, "zero_shot_pred": 0.33118514900902285}, {"country_code": "YE", "empirical_block_rate": 0.5473887814313346, "improvement_pp": 16.02155977497473, "n_evidence_label_window": 517, "n_incidents_hist": 0, "v33_abs_err": 0.3798868192323883, "v33_prior_pred": 0.16750196219894634, "zero_shot_abs_err": 0.219671221482641, "zero_shot_pred": 0.3277175599486936}, {"country_code": "BH", "empirical_block_rate": 0.6772486772486772, "improvement_pp": 0.1861407840022422, "n_evidence_label_window": 378, "n_incidents_hist": 0, "v33_abs_err": 0.5097467150497309, "v33_prior_pred": 0.16750196219894634, "zero_shot_abs_err": 0.5078853072097085, "zero_shot_pred": 0.16936337003896867}, {"country_code": "TJ", "empirical_block_rate": 0.037037037037037035, "improvement_pp": -4.129473449923696, "n_evidence_label_window": 27, "n_incidents_hist": 0, "v33_abs_err": 0.1304649251619093, "v33_prior_pred": 0.16750196219894634, "zero_shot_abs_err": 0.17175965966114626, "zero_shot_pred": 0.2087966966981833}, {"country_code": "TM", "empirical_block_rate": 0.2978723404255319, "improvement_pp": -4.45899897647856, "n_evidence_label_window": 47, "n_incidents_hist": 1, "v33_abs_err": 0.13037037822658556, "v33_prior_pred": 0.16750196219894634, "zero_shot_abs_err": 0.17496036799137116, "zero_shot_pred": 0.12291197243416073}, {"country_code": "KW", "empirical_block_rate": 0.7630057803468208, "improvement_pp": -8.217852093125199, "n_evidence_label_window": 173, "n_incidents_hist": 0, "v33_abs_err": 0.5955038181478745, "v33_prior_pred": 0.16750196219894634, "zero_shot_abs_err": 0.6776823390791265, "zero_shot_pred": 0.08532344126769432}, {"country_code": "KG", "empirical_block_rate": 0.34375, "improvement_pp": -10.302971990839957, "n_evidence_label_window": 32, "n_incidents_hist": 0, "v33_abs_err": 0.17624803780105366, "v33_prior_pred": 0.16750196219894634, "zero_shot_abs_err": 0.27927775770945323, 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0.11207213704696517}, {"feature": "n_probes_90d", "importance": 0.05430652807906532}, {"feature": "risk_tier", "importance": 0.038822303182772445}, {"feature": "continent_Asia", "importance": 0.025566150605096174}, {"feature": "subregion_Central Asia", "importance": 0.016771344114933008}, {"feature": "subregion_Caribbean", "importance": 0.0073289751750330555}, {"feature": "n_evidence_hist", "importance": 0.006631096516638396}, {"feature": "mean_block_rate_hist", "importance": 0.004246813752493162}, {"feature": "continent_Americas", "importance": 0.0018330144658907713}, {"feature": "continent_Europe", "importance": 0.000761893132107498}, {"feature": "subregion_Middle Africa", "importance": 0.0005126511665904444}, {"feature": "subregion_Western Europe", "importance": 1.7700861735745105e-05}, {"feature": "subregion_Northern America", "importance": 7.841989726659666e-06}], "trained_at": "2026-05-21T14:30:32.516350Z", "v33_baseline_prior": 0.16750196219894634, "data_as_of": "2026-05-21T14:30:32.800077Z", "data_age_hours": 2690.4, "data_stale": true, "data_source_artifact": "/opt/voidly-ai/models/zero_shot_transfer_v1.json", "data_freshness_note": "Any served_at/generated_at above is when this RESPONSE was assembled, not when the model ran. This artifact was last written 2026-05-21T14:30:32.800077Z (112.1 days ago). Cite data_as_of."}