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IS THE ACCOUNTABILITY NUMBER. The false-alarm rate is reported prominently and is NOT smoothed away. If it is high, the headline_warning field says so.","'Lead time' is alert-issued vs incident-DETECTION, not alert vs the real-world shutdown start. Incident detection itself lags (OONI/IODA ingest + the 30-min incident builder), so a positive lead time is a LOWER BOUND on the true early-warning margin \u2014 it does not over-state.","The matched incident is the next confirmed censorship/mixed incident in the same country within the horizon. It is a TEMPORAL match, not a causal one \u2014 the alert did not necessarily predict THAT specific incident.","Lagging alerts (forecast reacting to a shutdown already underway) are reported separately and are NOT counted toward the median-lead-time headline. Their lead time is 0 or negative.","Only incident_type IN ('censorship','mixed') count as a confirmed incident. IODA 'disruption' rows are network observations, not confirmed censorship, and are excluded.","The horizon is 14 days. A real incident that the alert predicted but that arrived later than 14 days is scored as a false alarm here \u2014 the FP rate is therefore an UPPER bound on true miss-fires.","Forecast-threshold alerts only \u2014 severity_upgrade, dbscan_flip, and contagion_chain_fire alert types use different logic and are out of scope for this retrospective.","Countries with <2 alerts are excluded from best/worst ranking so a single lucky or unlucky alert cannot crown a country."],"method":{"alert_source":"sentinel_alerts WHERE event_type='forecast_threshold' (7-day forecast crossing the alert threshold)","false_alarm":"no confirmed incident within 14 days after the alert (and none in the 3-day grace window before it)","horizon_days":14,"incident_source":"voidly_data.db incidents WHERE incident_type IN ('censorship','mixed') \u2014 IODA disruption rows excluded","lagging":"an incident started within 3 days BEFORE the alert \u2014 the forecast reacted to a shutdown already underway; lead time is 0 or negative and is excluded from the median-lead-time headline","lagging_grace_days":3,"lead_time_definition":"incident.first_seen - alert.issued_at, in days. Positive = the alert preceded incident DETECTION.","true_positive":"a confirmed incident in the same country within 14 days AFTER the 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