{"country":"EG","country_alerts":[{"alert_id":2160,"country":"EG","eval_date":"2026-07-10","forecast_probability":0.6309,"issued_at":"2026-07-10T02:00:01.502010+00:00","lead_days":0.92,"matched_incident_at":"2026-07-11T00:00:00+00:00","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","outcome":"true_positive","severity":"high","threshold":0.45}],"country_summary":{"alerts":1,"country":"EG","false_alarm_rate_pct":0.0,"false_alarms":0,"lagging_alerts":0,"mean_lead_time_days":0.92,"median_lead_time_days":0.92,"true_positive_rate_pct":100.0,"true_positives":1},"generated_at":"2026-10-05T04:50:01.770087+00:00","headline_warning":null,"honest_caveats":["THIS IS THE ACCOUNTABILITY NUMBER. The false-alarm rate is reported prominently and is NOT smoothed away. If it is high, the headline_warning field says so.","'Lead time' is alert-issued vs incident-DETECTION, not alert vs the real-world shutdown start. Incident detection itself lags (OONI/IODA ingest + the 30-min incident builder), so a positive lead time is a LOWER BOUND on the true early-warning margin \u2014 it does not over-state.","The matched incident is the next confirmed censorship/mixed incident in the same country within the horizon. It is a TEMPORAL match, not a causal one \u2014 the alert did not necessarily predict THAT specific incident.","Lagging alerts (forecast reacting to a shutdown already underway) are reported separately and are NOT counted toward the median-lead-time headline. Their lead time is 0 or negative.","Only incident_type IN ('censorship','mixed') count as a confirmed incident. IODA 'disruption' rows are network observations, not confirmed censorship, and are excluded.","The horizon is 14 days. A real incident that the alert predicted but that arrived later than 14 days is scored as a false alarm here \u2014 the FP rate is therefore an UPPER bound on true miss-fires.","Forecast-threshold alerts only \u2014 severity_upgrade, dbscan_flip, and contagion_chain_fire alert types use different logic and are out of scope for this retrospective.","Countries with <2 alerts are excluded from best/worst ranking so a single lucky or unlucky alert cannot crown a country."],"note":null,"overall_for_context":{"alerts_analyzed":70,"false_alarm_rate_pct":7.1,"false_alarms":5,"lagging_alerts":1,"lagging_rate_pct":1.4,"lead_time_days":{"max":12.92,"mean":1.97,"median":0.92,"min":0.69,"n":64,"p25":0.92,"p75":1.97},"true_positive_rate_pct":91.4,"true_positives":64},"schema":"voidly-sentinel-alert-lead-time/v1","window":{"lookback_days":90,"since":"2026-07-07T04:50:01.770087+00:00","until":"2026-10-05T04:50:01.770087+00:00"}}