{"alert_status":"alert","alert_threshold":{"f1":0.641,"fp":0,"low_confidence":false,"max_tp_seen":50,"n_alerts_backtest":51,"n_incidents_in_window":106,"precision":1.0,"raised_from_global":true,"recall":0.4717,"threshold":0.525,"tp":50},"country":"IR","generated_at":"2026-10-04T05:10:02.607163+00:00","honest_caveats":["Cutting the false-alarm rate TRADES recall. Each candidate's true_positive_rate_pct is reported next to its false_alarm_rate_pct \u2014 read them together.","Per-country thresholds are picked IN-SAMPLE on the same 90-day window they are scored on. The live forward false-alarm rate will be somewhat worse than this backtest; treat the backtest FP rate as an optimistic lower bound.","Thresholds are floored at the global 0.05 \u2014 the fix only ever RAISES an alert bar, never lowers one, so it can never fire MORE alerts than the baseline.","Countries with zero incidents in the window get recall=1 by convention when they also fire zero alerts; a country that fires alerts but had no incident is correctly scored as all-false-alarm.","The persistence gate fires one alert per sustained episode (on the day the run reaches PERSIST_DAYS length), not one per day \u2014 so it genuinely de-duplicates 1-day spikes rather than just delaying them.","Chronic-FP suppression downgrades a country to 'watch', it does not delete its forecast. The risk number is still published at /v1/sentinel/current_risk/{cc}; only the webhook alert is withheld.","DBSCAN / contagion multi-signal confirmation was considered but NOT backtested: those sidecars are point-in-time snapshots, not historical time series, so there is no honest 90-day backtest for them. They remain a candidate for a future fix once their history is retained."],"note":null,"schema":"voidly-sentinel-alert-quality/v1","suppressed":false,"suppression_detail":null,"window":{"lookback_days":90,"since":"2026-07-06T05:10:02.607163+00:00","until":"2026-10-04T05:10:02.607163+00:00"},"winner_summary_for_context":{"alerts_analyzed":965,"candidate":"C1+C3","false_alarm_rate_pct":4.7,"fp_rate_after":4.7,"fp_rate_before":26.7,"tp_rate_after":92.3,"tp_rate_before":70.1,"true_positive_rate_pct":92.3}}