{"abs_drift_pp":69.05,"brier":0.4819,"calibration_drift_pp":-69.05,"calibrator_path":"/opt/voidly-ai/models/forecast_calibrator_v2_isotonic_prod.pkl","country":"VE","drift_alert":true,"drift_threshold_pp":15,"empirical_pos_rate":0,"generated_at":"2026-05-22T05:00:03Z","honest_caveats":["Per-country windows are narrow. A country with fewer than 15 predictions in the 30-day window gets status='insufficient_data' and drift_alert=null.","High-frequency-flip countries (VE, MM) produce noisy drift estimates — abs_drift_pp tends to overstate true drift when the country is bouncing between blocked and unblocked.","Drift > 0 ≠ broken model. A real distribution shift in the country (election, mass protest, fresh shutdown campaign) will legitimately have empirical_pos_rate > mean_predicted_prob until the next weekly retrain catches up.","Observed labels are rebuilt from voidly_data.incidents using incident_type IN ('censorship','mixed') — matching the forecast model's post-2026-05-21 disruption-exclusion rule. The legacy sentinel_outcomes.observed column is NOT used.","Calibrator is applied with the same WATCHED_FOR_CALIBRATION + CALIBRATOR_FLOOR gate as the live API, so this is the literal probability that would have been served at request time."],"mean_predicted_prob":0.6905,"min_predictions_for_alert":15,"n_observed_positives":0,"n_predictions":24,"n_relabeled_vs_sentinel":24,"observed_rebuilt_from_voidly_db":true,"operational_threshold":0.05,"sidecar_last_modified":"2026-05-22T05:00:03Z","sidecar_size_bytes":16634,"status":"drifting","window_days":30,"window_end":"2026-05-15","window_start":"2026-04-22","_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}