{"cenalerts_event_type":"calibration_drift","description":"Daily per-country calibration drift monitor for the 7-day forecast. For each of the top-N most-active countries, joins logged predictions against rebuilt (censorship/mixed only) observed labels and computes mean predicted vs empirical positive rate over a rolling 30-day window.","drift_threshold_pp":15,"endpoint":"/v1/sentinel/calibration-drift","honest_caveats":["Per-country windows are narrow. A country with fewer than 15 predictions in the 30-day window gets status='insufficient_data' and drift_alert=null.","High-frequency-flip countries (VE, MM) produce noisy drift estimates — abs_drift_pp tends to overstate true drift when the country is bouncing between blocked and unblocked.","Drift > 0 ≠ broken model. A real distribution shift in the country (election, mass protest, fresh shutdown campaign) will legitimately have empirical_pos_rate > mean_predicted_prob until the next weekly retrain catches up.","Observed labels are rebuilt from voidly_data.incidents using incident_type IN ('censorship','mixed') — matching the forecast model's post-2026-05-21 disruption-exclusion rule. The legacy sentinel_outcomes.observed column is NOT used.","Calibrator is applied with the same WATCHED_FOR_CALIBRATION + CALIBRATOR_FLOOR gate as the live API, so this is the literal probability that would have been served at request time."],"min_predictions_for_alert":15,"model_id":"forecast-v1-7day","n_countries":30,"n_drifting":30,"n_insufficient_data":0,"n_ok":0,"per_country_endpoint":"/v1/sentinel/calibration-drift/{cc}","refresh":"daily at 05:00 UTC via cron","sidecar_last_modified":"2026-05-22T05:00:03Z","sidecar_path":"/opt/voidly-ai/ml-deploy/calibration_drift_by_country.json","sidecar_size_bytes":16634,"window_days":30,"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}