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A real distribution shift in the country (election, mass protest, fresh shutdown campaign) will legitimately have empirical_pos_rate > mean_predicted_prob until the next weekly retrain catches up.","Observed labels are rebuilt from voidly_data.incidents using incident_type IN ('censorship','mixed') \u2014 matching the forecast model's post-2026-05-21 disruption-exclusion rule. The legacy sentinel_outcomes.observed column is NOT used.","Calibrator is applied with the same WATCHED_FOR_CALIBRATION + CALIBRATOR_FLOOR gate as the live API, so this is the literal probability that would have been served at request 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