{"country":"AE","country_name":"AE","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.023,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.7237,"max_risk_day":5,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.042},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-10-03","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-04","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-05","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.015},{"date":"2026-10-06","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.023},{"date":"2026-10-07","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.031},{"date":"2026-10-08","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.042},{"date":"2026-10-09","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.021},{"date":"2026-10-10","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.035}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-10-02","flag":true,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.7237,"recommended_threshold":0.65,"risk_band":"elevated","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-10-03T19:16:03.581800","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":357.29,"conformal_coverage":0.9027522935779817,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-10-02T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=AE&test_name=tor&since=2026-10-02&until=2026-10-03&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:AE:tor:2026-10-02:18","signal_type":"tor-blocking","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-02T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=AE&test_name=signal&since=2026-10-02&until=2026-10-03&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:AE:signal:2026-10-02:18","signal_type":"blocking","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-02T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=AE&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-10-02&until=2026-10-03&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:AE:web_connectivity:2026-10-02:18","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"}],"interval_90":[0.3737,1.0],"model_version":"v1@2026-09-27T02:11:03.341768","probability":0.7237,"similar_incident":{"country":"AE","readable_id":"AE-2026-1429","severity":"critical","similarity":0.7699,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/AE-2026-1429"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0738,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0242,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0217,"direction":"down","name":"month","source":"model"}]}}