{"country":"AZ","country_name":"Azerbaijan","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.018,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.7332,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.034},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability come from honest_forecast_v1, an EXPERIMENTAL score: its historical rolling-origin AUC (~0.815) did not hold in live use (recent monthly live AUC 0.26-0.29, worse than chance). No proven onset-timing skill; do not cite it as a forecast. Re-evaluation: B1602 (2026-10). forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory; max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-10-25","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-26","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.019},{"date":"2026-10-27","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-28","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-29","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.013},{"date":"2026-10-30","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.027},{"date":"2026-10-31","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.02},{"date":"2026-11-01","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.034}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-10-23","flag":true,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.7332,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"risk_band":"elevated","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-10-25T07:57:49.025209","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":1297.6,"conformal_coverage":null,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-10-23T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=AZ&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-10-23&until=2026-10-24","ref":"ooni:live:AZ:web_connectivity:2026-10-23:18","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-23T12:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=AZ&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-10-23&until=2026-10-24","ref":"ooni:live:AZ:web_connectivity:2026-10-23:12","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-23T06:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=AZ&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-10-23&until=2026-10-24","ref":"ooni:live:AZ:web_connectivity:2026-10-23:06","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"}],"interval_90":null,"interval_90_status":"unverified_target_or_model_lineage","model_version":"v1@2026-10-25T02:20:48.528744","probability":0.7332,"similar_incident":{"country":"AZ","readable_id":"AZ-2026-1568","severity":"critical","similarity":0.6777,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/AZ-2026-1568"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0481,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.033,"direction":"down","name":"blocked_count_roll7_mean","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0252,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll7_std","source":"model"}]}}