{"country":"BF","country_name":"BF","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.021,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.7186,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.052},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-08-28","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-08-29","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-08-30","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.027},{"date":"2026-08-31","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.023},{"date":"2026-09-01","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-09-02","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.02},{"date":"2026-09-03","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.013},{"date":"2026-09-04","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.052}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-08-27","flag":true,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.7186,"recommended_threshold":0.65,"risk_band":"elevated","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-08-28T07:22:22.274234","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":14.36,"conformal_coverage":0.9004349927501208,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-24T19:10:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/BF","ref":"ioda:alert:bgp:region:308:1787598600","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-20T20:20:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/BF","ref":"ioda:alert:bgp:region:308:1787257200","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-20T18:45:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/BF","ref":"ioda:alert:merit-nt:region:322:1787251500","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"}],"interval_90":[0.3686,1.0],"model_version":"v1@2026-08-23T02:10:34.894806","probability":0.7186,"similar_incident":{"country":"BF","first_seen":"2026-08-24T19:10:00Z","incident_type":"disruption","readable_id":"BF-2026-0033","severity":"critical","similarity":null,"source":"sql_fallback","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/BF-2026-0033"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0363,"direction":"down","name":"blocked_count_roll7_mean","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.021,"direction":"down","name":"month","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0169,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll30_mean","source":"model"}]}}