{"country":"BF","country_name":"BF","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.024,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.6786,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.055},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability come from honest_forecast_v1, an EXPERIMENTAL score: its historical rolling-origin AUC (~0.815) did not hold in live use (recent monthly live AUC 0.26-0.29, worse than chance). No proven onset-timing skill; do not cite it as a forecast. Re-evaluation: B1602 (2026-10). forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory; max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-10-24","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-25","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-26","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-27","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.035},{"date":"2026-10-28","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.04},{"date":"2026-10-29","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.023},{"date":"2026-10-30","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-31","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.055}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-10-22","flag":true,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.6786,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"risk_band":"elevated","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-10-24T03:43:09.203619","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":57.14,"conformal_coverage":null,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-10-23T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=BF&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-10-23&until=2026-10-24","ref":"ooni:live:BF:web_connectivity:2026-10-23:18","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-23T12:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=BF&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-10-23&until=2026-10-24","ref":"ooni:live:BF:web_connectivity:2026-10-23:12","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-22T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=BF&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-10-22&until=2026-10-23","ref":"ooni:live:BF:web_connectivity:2026-10-22:18","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"}],"interval_90":null,"interval_90_status":"unverified_target_or_model_lineage","model_version":"v1@2026-10-18T02:19:52.728259","probability":0.6786,"similar_incident":{"country":"BF","readable_id":"BF-2024-0001","severity":"warning","similarity":0.7169,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/BF-2024-0001"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0781,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll30_mean","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0323,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0293,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll7_mean","source":"model"}]}}