{"country":"BY","country_name":"Belarus","drivers":["Belarus Protests Anniversary 2026 in 29d","Belarus Protests Anniversary 2026 in 30d","Belarus Protests Anniversary 2026 in 28d"],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.024,"key_drivers":["Belarus Protests Anniversary 2026 in 29d","Belarus Protests Anniversary 2026 in 30d","Belarus Protests Anniversary 2026 in 28d"],"max_risk":0.5751,"max_risk_day":6,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.055},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-07-05","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.011},{"date":"2026-07-06","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-07-07","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-07-08","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.014},{"date":"2026-07-09","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.035},{"date":"2026-07-10","day":5,"drivers":["Belarus Protests Anniversary 2026 in 30d"],"risk":0.031},{"date":"2026-07-11","day":6,"drivers":["Belarus Protests Anniversary 2026 in 29d"],"risk":0.055},{"date":"2026-07-12","day":7,"drivers":["Belarus Protests Anniversary 2026 in 28d"],"risk":0.026}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-07-04","flag":false,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.5751,"recommended_threshold":0.65,"risk_band":"watch","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-07-05T15:52:01.687813","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":30.76,"conformal_coverage":0.9128461189287336,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-07-04T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=BY&test_name=http_header_field_manipulation&since=2026-07-04&until=2026-07-04&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:BY:http_header_field_manipulation:2026-07-04:18","signal_type":"header-manipulation","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-07-04T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=BY&test_name=http_invalid_request_line&since=2026-07-04&until=2026-07-04&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:BY:http_invalid_request_line:2026-07-04:18","signal_type":"middlebox-detection","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-07-04T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=BY&test_name=tor&since=2026-07-04&until=2026-07-04&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:BY:tor:2026-07-04:18","signal_type":"tor-blocking","source":"ooni"}],"interval_90":[0.2251,0.9251],"model_version":"v1@2026-06-07T02:14:25.651493","probability":0.5751,"similar_incident":{"country":"BY","first_seen":"2026-07-01T00:00:00Z","incident_type":"censorship","readable_id":"BY-2026-0474","severity":"critical","similarity":null,"source":"sql_fallback","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/BY-2026-0474"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0263,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0129,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_protests_7d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0118,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"}]},"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}