{"country":"CA","country_name":"CA","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.119,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.0595,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.156},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-10-07","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.116},{"date":"2026-10-08","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.099},{"date":"2026-10-09","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.095},{"date":"2026-10-10","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.105},{"date":"2026-10-11","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.11},{"date":"2026-10-12","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.135},{"date":"2026-10-13","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.132},{"date":"2026-10-14","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.156}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-10-05","flag":false,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.0595,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"risk_band":"low","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-10-07T07:24:38.792400","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":293.43,"conformal_coverage":0.9150772025431426,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:06.339128+00:00","permalink":"https://api.voidly.ai/data/evidence/528397506","ref":"f4cefb574c704008","signal_type":"block","source":"Voidly"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-07T07:19:05.215043+00:00","permalink":"https://api.voidly.ai/data/evidence/528397505","ref":"d196912821379e33","signal_type":"block","source":"Voidly"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-07T07:14:28.965768+00:00","permalink":"https://api.voidly.ai/data/evidence/528397488","ref":"05a8a6b81b0af681","signal_type":"block","source":"Voidly"}],"interval_90":[0.0,0.4095],"model_version":"v1@2026-10-04T02:19:46.672537","probability":0.0595,"similar_incident":{"country":"QA","readable_id":"QA-2026-0669","severity":"critical","similarity":0.6833,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/QA-2026-0669"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.119,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.0416,"direction":"up","name":"block_rate_roll7_mean","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0238,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"}]}}