{"country":"CH","country_name":"Switzerland","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.023,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.1845,"max_risk_day":6,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.049},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-10-04","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-05","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.022},{"date":"2026-10-06","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-07","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.017},{"date":"2026-10-08","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-09","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.028},{"date":"2026-10-10","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.049},{"date":"2026-10-11","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.038}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-10-03","flag":false,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.1845,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"risk_band":"low","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-10-04T21:07:28.920758","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":276.21,"conformal_coverage":0.9150772025431426,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-09-29T05:25:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/CH","ref":"ioda:alert:bgp:region:596:1790659500","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"},{"observed_at":"2026-09-23T11:15:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/CH","ref":"ioda:alert:bgp:region:596:1790162100","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"},{"observed_at":"2026-09-23T06:25:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/CH","ref":"ioda:alert:bgp:region:596:1790144700","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"}],"interval_90":[0.0,0.5345],"model_version":"v1@2026-10-04T02:19:46.672537","probability":0.1845,"similar_incident":{"country":"QA","readable_id":"QA-2026-0669","severity":"critical","similarity":0.7132,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/QA-2026-0669"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0591,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0478,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll7_mean","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0282,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"}]}}