{"country":"CN","country_name":"China","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.022,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.0369,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.052},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-10-04","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-05","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-06","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-07","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.013},{"date":"2026-10-08","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.037},{"date":"2026-10-09","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.013},{"date":"2026-10-10","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.029},{"date":"2026-10-11","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.052}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-10-03","flag":false,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.0369,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"risk_band":"low","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-10-04T08:37:47.392374","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":37.36,"conformal_coverage":0.9150772025431426,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-10-03T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=CN&test_name=http_header_field_manipulation&since=2026-10-03&until=2026-10-04&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:CN:http_header_field_manipulation:2026-10-03:18","signal_type":"header-manipulation","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-03T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=CN&test_name=http_invalid_request_line&since=2026-10-03&until=2026-10-04&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:CN:http_invalid_request_line:2026-10-03:18","signal_type":"middlebox-detection","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-03T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=CN&test_name=tor&since=2026-10-03&until=2026-10-04&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:CN:tor:2026-10-03:18","signal_type":"tor-blocking","source":"ooni"}],"interval_90":[0.0,0.3869],"model_version":"v1@2026-10-04T02:19:46.672537","probability":0.0369,"similar_incident":{"country":"CN","readable_id":"CN-2026-0625","severity":"critical","similarity":0.838,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/CN-2026-0625"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0447,"direction":"down","name":"risk_tier","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0419,"direction":"down","name":"high_urgency_signals_7d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0368,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"}]}}