{"country":"CU","country_name":"Cuba","drivers":["July 11 Protests Anniversary 2026","July 11 Protests Anniversary 2026 in 5d","July 11 Protests Anniversary 2026 in 2d","July 11 Protests Anniversary 2026 in 1d","July 11 Protests Anniversary 2026 in 4d"],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.077,"key_drivers":["July 11 Protests Anniversary 2026","July 11 Protests Anniversary 2026 in 5d","July 11 Protests Anniversary 2026 in 2d","July 11 Protests Anniversary 2026 in 1d","July 11 Protests Anniversary 2026 in 4d"],"max_risk":0.7452,"max_risk_day":6,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.13},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-07-05","day":0,"drivers":["July 11 Protests Anniversary 2026 in 6d"],"risk":0.056},{"date":"2026-07-06","day":1,"drivers":["July 11 Protests Anniversary 2026 in 5d"],"risk":0.045},{"date":"2026-07-07","day":2,"drivers":["July 11 Protests Anniversary 2026 in 4d"],"risk":0.062},{"date":"2026-07-08","day":3,"drivers":["July 11 Protests Anniversary 2026 in 3d"],"risk":0.062},{"date":"2026-07-09","day":4,"drivers":["July 11 Protests Anniversary 2026 in 2d"],"risk":0.1},{"date":"2026-07-10","day":5,"drivers":["July 11 Protests Anniversary 2026 in 1d"],"risk":0.122},{"date":"2026-07-11","day":6,"drivers":["July 11 Protests Anniversary 2026"],"risk":0.13},{"date":"2026-07-12","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.039}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-07-04","flag":true,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.7452,"recommended_threshold":0.65,"risk_band":"elevated","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-07-05T15:51:55.407618","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":6.12,"conformal_coverage":0.9128461189287336,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-07-03T12:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=CU&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-07-03&until=2026-07-03&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:CU:web_connectivity:2026-07-03:12","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-07-02T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=CU&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-07-02&until=2026-07-02&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:CU:web_connectivity:2026-07-02:18","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-07-02T12:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=CU&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-07-02&until=2026-07-02&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:CU:web_connectivity:2026-07-02:12","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"}],"interval_90":[0.3952,1],"model_version":"v1@2026-06-07T02:14:25.651493","probability":0.7452,"similar_incident":{"country":"CU","first_seen":"2026-07-01T12:00:00Z","incident_type":"censorship","readable_id":"CU-2026-0249","severity":"critical","similarity":null,"source":"sql_fallback","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/CU-2026-0249"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0284,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.012,"direction":"up","name":"block_rate_roll14_mean","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0065,"direction":"down","name":"risk_tier","source":"model"}]},"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}