{"country":"CU","country_name":"Cuba","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.02,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.4859,"max_risk_day":6,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.048},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-10-03","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.016},{"date":"2026-10-04","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-05","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-06","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-07","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-08","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.013},{"date":"2026-10-09","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.048},{"date":"2026-10-10","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.047}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-10-02","flag":false,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.4859,"recommended_threshold":0.65,"risk_band":"watch","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-10-03T20:57:36.353120","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":120.29,"conformal_coverage":0.9027522935779817,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-10-02T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=CU&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-10-02&until=2026-10-03&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:CU:web_connectivity:2026-10-02:18","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-02T12:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=CU&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-10-02&until=2026-10-03&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:CU:web_connectivity:2026-10-02:12","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=CU&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-10-02&until=2026-10-03&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:CU:web_connectivity:2026-10-02:00","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"}],"interval_90":[0.1359,0.8359],"model_version":"v1@2026-09-27T02:11:03.341768","probability":0.4859,"similar_incident":{"country":"CU","readable_id":"CU-2026-0622","severity":"critical","similarity":0.8552,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/CU-2026-0622"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0361,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0356,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0291,"direction":"down","name":"month","source":"model"}]}}