{"country":"DK","country_name":"Denmark","drivers":["Danish Parliament in 1d","Danish Parliament in 2d","Danish Parliament in 4d","Danish Parliament in 3d","Danish Parliament"],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.128,"key_drivers":["Danish Parliament in 1d","Danish Parliament in 2d","Danish Parliament in 4d","Danish Parliament in 3d","Danish Parliament"],"max_risk":0.0385,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.22},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability come from honest_forecast_v1, an EXPERIMENTAL score: its historical rolling-origin AUC (~0.815) did not hold in live use (recent monthly live AUC 0.26-0.29, worse than chance). No proven onset-timing skill; do not cite it as a forecast. Re-evaluation: B1602 (2026-10). forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory; max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-10-24","day":0,"drivers":["Danish Parliament in 7d"],"risk":0.076},{"date":"2026-10-25","day":1,"drivers":["Danish Parliament in 6d"],"risk":0.065},{"date":"2026-10-26","day":2,"drivers":["Danish Parliament in 5d"],"risk":0.112},{"date":"2026-10-27","day":3,"drivers":["Danish Parliament in 4d"],"risk":0.09},{"date":"2026-10-28","day":4,"drivers":["Danish Parliament in 3d"],"risk":0.127},{"date":"2026-10-29","day":5,"drivers":["Danish Parliament in 2d"],"risk":0.145},{"date":"2026-10-30","day":6,"drivers":["Danish Parliament in 1d"],"risk":0.186},{"date":"2026-10-31","day":7,"drivers":["Danish Parliament"],"risk":0.22}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-10-23","flag":false,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.0385,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"risk_band":"low","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-10-24T03:30:05.283662","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":402.21,"conformal_coverage":null,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-10-23T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=DK&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-10-23&until=2026-10-24","ref":"ooni:live:DK:web_connectivity:2026-10-23:18","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-23T12:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=DK&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-10-23&until=2026-10-24","ref":"ooni:live:DK:web_connectivity:2026-10-23:12","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-23T06:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=DK&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-10-23&until=2026-10-24","ref":"ooni:live:DK:web_connectivity:2026-10-23:06","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"}],"interval_90":null,"interval_90_status":"unverified_target_or_model_lineage","model_version":"v1@2026-10-18T02:19:52.728259","probability":0.0385,"similar_incident":{"country":"ET","readable_id":"ET-2026-0698","severity":"critical","similarity":0.4299,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/ET-2026-0698"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.1142,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0601,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.054,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll7_std","source":"model"}]}}