{"country":"EG","country_name":"Egypt","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.513,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.6897,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.551},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-10-04","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.485},{"date":"2026-10-05","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.525},{"date":"2026-10-06","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.496},{"date":"2026-10-07","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.496},{"date":"2026-10-08","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.506},{"date":"2026-10-09","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.536},{"date":"2026-10-10","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.512},{"date":"2026-10-11","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.551}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-10-03","flag":true,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.6897,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"risk_band":"elevated","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-10-04T18:42:55.262577","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":517.12,"conformal_coverage":0.9150772025431426,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-10-03T01:37:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/EG","ref":"ioda:alert:merit-nt:region:988:1790991420","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-03T01:30:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/EG","ref":"ioda:alert:merit-nt:region:988:1790991000","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-03T00:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=EG&test_name=web_connectivity&domain=x.com&since=2026-10-03","ref":"ooni:domain:EG:web_connectivity:2026-10-03:x.com","signal_type":"ooni-clear","source":"ooni"}],"interval_90":[0.3397,1.0],"model_version":"v1@2026-10-04T02:19:46.672537","probability":0.6897,"similar_incident":{"country":"EG","readable_id":"EG-2025-0002","severity":"critical","similarity":0.7326,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/EG-2025-0002"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.1419,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.0876,"direction":"up","name":"incident_count_7d","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.0655,"direction":"up","name":"block_rate_lag3","source":"model"}]}}