{"country":"ES","country_name":"ES","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.017,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.1719,"max_risk_day":6,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.025},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-10-06","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-07","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-08","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.016},{"date":"2026-10-09","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.02},{"date":"2026-10-10","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.024},{"date":"2026-10-11","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-12","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.025},{"date":"2026-10-13","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.024}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-10-04","flag":false,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.1719,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"risk_band":"low","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-10-06T04:26:36.240623","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":331.13,"conformal_coverage":0.9150772025431426,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-10-06T04:19:23.675468+00:00","permalink":"https://api.voidly.ai/data/evidence/522929476","ref":"739e0f80defd7eb6","signal_type":"block","source":"Voidly"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-06T04:14:51.075300+00:00","permalink":"https://api.voidly.ai/data/evidence/522929457","ref":"0cac1a0010612fd4","signal_type":"block","source":"Voidly"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-06T03:55:46.802101+00:00","permalink":"https://api.voidly.ai/data/evidence/522929412","ref":"2450434b9719b1a7","signal_type":"block","source":"Voidly"}],"interval_90":[0.0,0.5219],"model_version":"v1@2026-10-04T02:19:46.672537","probability":0.1719,"similar_incident":{"country":"ES","readable_id":"ES-2025-0002","severity":"warning","similarity":0.7586,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/ES-2025-0002"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0459,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0288,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.027,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll7_mean","source":"model"}]}}