{"country":"ET","country_name":"Ethiopia","drivers":["Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 25d","Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 27d","Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 28d","Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 30d","Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 24d"],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.026,"key_drivers":["Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 25d","Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 27d","Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 28d","Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 30d","Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 24d"],"max_risk":0.7225,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.048},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-10-04","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-05","day":1,"drivers":["Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 30d"],"risk":0.027},{"date":"2026-10-06","day":2,"drivers":["Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 29d"],"risk":0.011},{"date":"2026-10-07","day":3,"drivers":["Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 28d"],"risk":0.022},{"date":"2026-10-08","day":4,"drivers":["Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 27d"],"risk":0.024},{"date":"2026-10-09","day":5,"drivers":["Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 26d"],"risk":0.043},{"date":"2026-10-10","day":6,"drivers":["Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 25d"],"risk":0.026},{"date":"2026-10-11","day":7,"drivers":["Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 24d"],"risk":0.048}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-10-03","flag":true,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.7225,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"risk_band":"elevated","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-10-04T12:35:39.431029","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":207.26,"conformal_coverage":0.9150772025431426,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-10-02T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=ET&test_name=http_header_field_manipulation&since=2026-10-02&until=2026-10-03&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:ET:http_header_field_manipulation:2026-10-02:18","signal_type":"header-manipulation","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-02T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=ET&test_name=facebook_messenger&since=2026-10-02&until=2026-10-03&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:ET:facebook_messenger:2026-10-02:18","signal_type":"blocking","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-02T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=ET&test_name=whatsapp&since=2026-10-02&until=2026-10-03&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:ET:whatsapp:2026-10-02:18","signal_type":"blocking","source":"ooni"}],"interval_90":[0.3725,1.0],"model_version":"v1@2026-10-04T02:19:46.672537","probability":0.7225,"similar_incident":{"country":"ET","readable_id":"ET-2026-0767","severity":"critical","similarity":0.6938,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/ET-2026-0767"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0527,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll7_mean","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0357,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0237,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll7_std","source":"model"}]}}