{"country":"FR","country_name":"FR","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.202,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.6849,"max_risk_day":6,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.237},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-10-05","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.175},{"date":"2026-10-06","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.198},{"date":"2026-10-07","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.199},{"date":"2026-10-08","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.191},{"date":"2026-10-09","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.217},{"date":"2026-10-10","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.197},{"date":"2026-10-11","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.237},{"date":"2026-10-12","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.206}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-10-04","flag":true,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.6849,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"risk_band":"elevated","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-10-05T21:21:46.704175","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":296.5,"conformal_coverage":0.9150772025431426,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-10-05T16:54:30.929861Z","permalink":"https://api.voidly.ai/data/evidence/521507416","ref":"f819c0960bb7d151","signal_type":"block","source":"Voidly-Community"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-05T16:38:47.200018Z","permalink":"https://api.voidly.ai/data/evidence/521507406","ref":"738be7e58e18804d","signal_type":"block","source":"Voidly-Community"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-05T16:23:19.728490Z","permalink":"https://api.voidly.ai/data/evidence/520777167","ref":"77d36ff0877a3cb7","signal_type":"block","source":"Voidly-Community"}],"interval_90":[0.3349,1.0],"model_version":"v1@2026-10-04T02:19:46.672537","probability":0.6849,"similar_incident":{"country":"ET","readable_id":"ET-2026-0766","severity":"critical","similarity":0.7276,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/ET-2026-0766"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.1159,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.0769,"direction":"up","name":"incident_count_7d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0523,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"}]}}