{"country":"ID","country_name":"Indonesia","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.249,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.0009,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.28},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-10-05","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.234},{"date":"2026-10-06","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.222},{"date":"2026-10-07","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.229},{"date":"2026-10-08","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.257},{"date":"2026-10-09","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.26},{"date":"2026-10-10","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.251},{"date":"2026-10-11","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.259},{"date":"2026-10-12","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.28}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-10-04","flag":false,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.0009,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"risk_band":"low","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-10-05T09:48:05.371567","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":56.88,"conformal_coverage":0.9150772025431426,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-10-05T01:00:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/ID","ref":"ioda:alert:bgp:region:1737:1791162000","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-05T00:00:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/ID","ref":"ioda:alert:bgp:region:1737:1791158400","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-04T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=ID&test_name=http_invalid_request_line&since=2026-10-04&until=2026-10-05&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:ID:http_invalid_request_line:2026-10-04:18","signal_type":"middlebox-detection","source":"ooni"}],"interval_90":[0.0,0.3509],"model_version":"v1@2026-10-04T02:19:46.672537","probability":0.0009,"similar_incident":{"country":"ID","readable_id":"ID-2026-0301","severity":"critical","similarity":0.6494,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/ID-2026-0301"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.061,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0433,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0354,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll7_std","source":"model"}]}}