{"country":"IE","country_name":"IE","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.039,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.575,"max_risk_day":6,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.052},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-07-07","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.014},{"date":"2026-07-08","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.029},{"date":"2026-07-09","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.031},{"date":"2026-07-10","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.042},{"date":"2026-07-11","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.051},{"date":"2026-07-12","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.051},{"date":"2026-07-13","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.052},{"date":"2026-07-14","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.041}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-07-06","flag":false,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.575,"recommended_threshold":0.65,"risk_band":"watch","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-07-07T19:47:00.272293","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":3.32,"conformal_coverage":0.9128461189287336,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-07-07T10:35:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/IE","ref":"ioda:alert:bgp:region:1806:1783420500","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"},{"observed_at":"2026-07-07T10:35:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/IE","ref":"ioda:alert:bgp:region:1817:1783420500","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"},{"observed_at":"2026-07-07T10:35:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/IE","ref":"ioda:alert:bgp:region:1787:1783420500","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"}],"interval_90":[0.225,0.925],"model_version":"v1@2026-06-07T02:14:25.651493","probability":0.575,"similar_incident":{"country":"IE","first_seen":"2026-07-07T10:35:00Z","incident_type":"disruption","readable_id":"IE-2026-0013","severity":"critical","similarity":null,"source":"sql_fallback","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/IE-2026-0013"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0095,"direction":"down","name":"month","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0082,"direction":"down","name":"incident_count_7d","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.0051,"direction":"up","name":"gdelt_conflict_tone_7d","source":"model"}]},"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}