{"country":"IQ","country_name":"IQ","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.02,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.2938,"max_risk_day":6,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.037},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-10-06","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-07","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.014},{"date":"2026-10-08","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-09","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.026},{"date":"2026-10-10","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.025},{"date":"2026-10-11","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.022},{"date":"2026-10-12","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.037},{"date":"2026-10-13","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.017}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-10-05","flag":false,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.2938,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"risk_band":"low","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-10-06T12:24:49.504574","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":146.29,"conformal_coverage":0.9150772025431426,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-10-06T03:30:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/IQ","ref":"ioda:alert:bgp:region:1858:1791257400","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-06T03:30:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/IQ","ref":"ioda:alert:bgp:region:1862:1791257400","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-06T03:30:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/IQ","ref":"ioda:alert:bgp:region:1864:1791257400","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"}],"interval_90":[0.0,0.6438],"model_version":"v1@2026-10-04T02:19:46.672537","probability":0.2938,"similar_incident":{"country":"IQ","readable_id":"IQ-2026-0387","severity":"critical","similarity":0.8143,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/IQ-2026-0387"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0779,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0442,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0376,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_riots_7d","source":"model"}]}}