{"country":"IR","country_name":"Iran","drivers":["Mahsa Amini Anniversary 2026 in 27d","Mahsa Amini Anniversary 2026 in 24d","Mahsa Amini Anniversary 2026 in 21d","Mahsa Amini Anniversary 2026 in 28d","Mahsa Amini Anniversary 2026 in 26d"],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.034,"key_drivers":["Mahsa Amini Anniversary 2026 in 27d","Mahsa Amini Anniversary 2026 in 24d","Mahsa Amini Anniversary 2026 in 21d","Mahsa Amini Anniversary 2026 in 28d","Mahsa Amini Anniversary 2026 in 26d"],"max_risk":0.3482,"max_risk_day":5,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.053},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-08-19","day":0,"drivers":["Mahsa Amini Anniversary 2026 in 28d"],"risk":0.03},{"date":"2026-08-20","day":1,"drivers":["Mahsa Amini Anniversary 2026 in 27d"],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-08-21","day":2,"drivers":["Mahsa Amini Anniversary 2026 in 26d"],"risk":0.033},{"date":"2026-08-22","day":3,"drivers":["Mahsa Amini Anniversary 2026 in 25d"],"risk":0.028},{"date":"2026-08-23","day":4,"drivers":["Mahsa Amini Anniversary 2026 in 24d"],"risk":0.04},{"date":"2026-08-24","day":5,"drivers":["Mahsa Amini Anniversary 2026 in 23d"],"risk":0.053},{"date":"2026-08-25","day":6,"drivers":["Mahsa Amini Anniversary 2026 in 22d"],"risk":0.031},{"date":"2026-08-26","day":7,"drivers":["Mahsa Amini Anniversary 2026 in 21d"],"risk":0.05}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-08-18","flag":false,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.3482,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"risk_band":"low","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-08-19T19:29:53.461378","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":3.06,"conformal_coverage":0.9145090376160234,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-18T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=IR&test_name=http_invalid_request_line&since=2026-08-18&until=2026-08-19&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:IR:http_invalid_request_line:2026-08-18:18","signal_type":"middlebox-detection","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-18T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=IR&test_name=tor&since=2026-08-18&until=2026-08-19&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:IR:tor:2026-08-18:18","signal_type":"tor-blocking","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-18T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=IR&test_name=facebook_messenger&since=2026-08-18&until=2026-08-19&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:IR:facebook_messenger:2026-08-18:18","signal_type":"blocking","source":"ooni"}],"interval_90":[0,0.6982],"model_version":"v1@2026-08-16T02:10:31.327087","probability":0.3482,"similar_incident":{"country":"IR","first_seen":"2026-08-18T09:00:00Z","incident_type":"disruption","readable_id":"IR-2026-2374","severity":"critical","similarity":null,"source":"sql_fallback","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/IR-2026-2374"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0788,"direction":"down","name":"month","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0602,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.0296,"direction":"up","name":"block_rate_lag7","source":"model"}]},"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}