{"country":"IT","country_name":"Italy","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.019,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.0003,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.045},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-10-08","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.016},{"date":"2026-10-09","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-10","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.029},{"date":"2026-10-11","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-12","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.013},{"date":"2026-10-13","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.018},{"date":"2026-10-14","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.014},{"date":"2026-10-15","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.045}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-10-05","flag":false,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.0003,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"risk_band":"low","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-10-08T01:24:23.506356","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":1877.36,"conformal_coverage":0.9150772025431426,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-10-06T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=IT&test_name=http_invalid_request_line&since=2026-10-06&until=2026-10-07&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:IT:http_invalid_request_line:2026-10-06:18","signal_type":"middlebox-detection","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-06T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=IT&test_name=tor&since=2026-10-06&until=2026-10-07&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:IT:tor:2026-10-06:18","signal_type":"tor-blocking","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-06T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=IT&test_name=telegram&since=2026-10-06&until=2026-10-07&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:IT:telegram:2026-10-06:18","signal_type":"blocking","source":"ooni"}],"interval_90":[0.0,0.3503],"model_version":"v1@2026-10-04T02:19:46.672537","probability":0.0003,"similar_incident":{"country":"QA","readable_id":"QA-2026-0669","severity":"critical","similarity":0.6889,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/QA-2026-0669"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0794,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0384,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0244,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll7_std","source":"model"}]}}