{"country":"JO","country_name":"JO","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.022,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.8098,"max_risk_day":5,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.04},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-10-06","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.018},{"date":"2026-10-07","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-08","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.025},{"date":"2026-10-09","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-10","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-11","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.04},{"date":"2026-10-12","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.039},{"date":"2026-10-13","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.02}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-10-05","flag":true,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.8098,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"risk_band":"elevated","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-10-06T12:47:49.107854","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":359.27,"conformal_coverage":0.9150772025431426,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-10-05T06:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=JO&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-10-05&until=2026-10-06&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:JO:web_connectivity:2026-10-05:06","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-04T12:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=JO&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-10-04&until=2026-10-05&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:JO:web_connectivity:2026-10-04:12","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-04T06:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=JO&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-10-04&until=2026-10-05&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:JO:web_connectivity:2026-10-04:06","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"}],"interval_90":[0.4598,1.0],"model_version":"v1@2026-10-04T02:19:46.672537","probability":0.8098,"similar_incident":{"country":"JO","readable_id":"JO-2026-0748","severity":"critical","similarity":0.787,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/JO-2026-0748"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0426,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0408,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0356,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll7_mean","source":"model"}]}}