{"country":"KZ","country_name":"Kazakhstan","drivers":["Kazakh National Congress in 1d","Kazakh National Congress in 7d","Kazakh National Congress in 5d","Kazakh National Congress in 11d","Kazakh National Congress in 3d"],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.122,"key_drivers":["Kazakh National Congress in 1d","Kazakh National Congress in 7d","Kazakh National Congress in 5d","Kazakh National Congress in 11d","Kazakh National Congress in 3d"],"max_risk":0.4062,"max_risk_day":4,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.202},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-08-19","day":0,"drivers":["Kazakh National Congress in 4d","Kazakh National Congress in 12d"],"risk":0.087},{"date":"2026-08-20","day":1,"drivers":["Kazakh National Congress in 3d","Kazakh National Congress in 11d"],"risk":0.109},{"date":"2026-08-21","day":2,"drivers":["Kazakh National Congress in 2d","Kazakh National Congress in 10d"],"risk":0.154},{"date":"2026-08-22","day":3,"drivers":["Kazakh National Congress in 1d","Kazakh National Congress in 9d"],"risk":0.178},{"date":"2026-08-23","day":4,"drivers":["Kazakh National Congress","Kazakh National Congress in 8d"],"risk":0.202},{"date":"2026-08-24","day":5,"drivers":["Kazakh National Congress in 7d"],"risk":0.068},{"date":"2026-08-25","day":6,"drivers":["Kazakh National Congress in 6d"],"risk":0.066},{"date":"2026-08-26","day":7,"drivers":["Kazakh National Congress in 5d"],"risk":0.114}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-08-18","flag":false,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.4062,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"risk_band":"watch","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-08-19T19:30:10.361100","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":3.1,"conformal_coverage":0.9145090376160234,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-18T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=KZ&test_name=http_header_field_manipulation&since=2026-08-18&until=2026-08-19&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:KZ:http_header_field_manipulation:2026-08-18:18","signal_type":"header-manipulation","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-18T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=KZ&test_name=http_invalid_request_line&since=2026-08-18&until=2026-08-19&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:KZ:http_invalid_request_line:2026-08-18:18","signal_type":"middlebox-detection","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-18T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=KZ&test_name=facebook_messenger&since=2026-08-18&until=2026-08-19&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:KZ:facebook_messenger:2026-08-18:18","signal_type":"blocking","source":"ooni"}],"interval_90":[0.0562,0.7562],"model_version":"v1@2026-08-16T02:10:31.327087","probability":0.4062,"similar_incident":{"country":"KZ","first_seen":"2026-08-18T07:40:00Z","incident_type":"disruption","readable_id":"KZ-2026-0433","severity":"critical","similarity":null,"source":"sql_fallback","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/KZ-2026-0433"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0479,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0331,"direction":"down","name":"month","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0124,"direction":"down","name":"verified_signals_7d","source":"model"}]},"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}