{"country":"ML","country_name":"ML","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.019,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.0046,"max_risk_day":4,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.034},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-09-21","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-09-22","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-09-23","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-09-24","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.021},{"date":"2026-09-25","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.034},{"date":"2026-09-26","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.034},{"date":"2026-09-27","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.011},{"date":"2026-09-28","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.021}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-09-12","flag":false,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.0046,"recommended_threshold":0.675,"risk_band":"low","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-09-21T18:49:06.343016","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":1058.88,"conformal_coverage":0.9003707136237257,"evidence_permalinks":[],"interval_90":[0.0,0.3546],"model_version":"v1@2026-09-20T02:10:49.156389","probability":0.0046,"similar_incident":{"country":"LB","readable_id":"LB-2026-1205","severity":"critical","similarity":0.5821,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/LB-2026-1205"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0529,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0337,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0279,"direction":"down","name":"recent_shutdown","source":"model"}]}}