{"country":"ML","country_name":"ML","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.018,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.4555,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.047},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability come from honest_forecast_v1, an EXPERIMENTAL score: its historical rolling-origin AUC (~0.815) did not hold in live use (recent monthly live AUC 0.26-0.29, worse than chance). No proven onset-timing skill; do not cite it as a forecast. Re-evaluation: B1602 (2026-10). forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory; max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-11-06","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-11-07","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-11-08","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-11-09","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.029},{"date":"2026-11-10","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-11-11","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.011},{"date":"2026-11-12","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.017},{"date":"2026-11-13","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.047}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-11-05","flag":false,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.4555,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"risk_band":"watch","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-11-06T02:18:38.977942","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":45.19,"conformal_coverage":null,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-11-05T12:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=ML&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-11-05&until=2026-11-06","ref":"ooni:live:ML:web_connectivity:2026-11-05:12","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-11-05T00:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=ML&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-11-05&until=2026-11-06","ref":"ooni:live:ML:web_connectivity:2026-11-05:00","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-11-04T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=ML&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-11-04&until=2026-11-05","ref":"ooni:live:ML:web_connectivity:2026-11-04:18","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"}],"interval_90":null,"interval_90_status":"unverified_target_or_model_lineage","model_version":"v1@2026-11-01T02:18:10.429395","probability":0.4555,"similar_incident":{"country":"ML","first_seen":"2026-11-03T16:15:00Z","incident_type":"disruption","readable_id":"ML-2026-0011","severity":"critical","similarity":null,"source":"sql_fallback","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/ML-2026-0011"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.07,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.062,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll30_mean","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0455,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"}]}}