{"country":"NL","country_name":"NL","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.054,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.0591,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.085},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-10-07","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.028},{"date":"2026-10-08","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.049},{"date":"2026-10-09","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.034},{"date":"2026-10-10","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.049},{"date":"2026-10-11","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.071},{"date":"2026-10-12","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.051},{"date":"2026-10-13","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.067},{"date":"2026-10-14","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.085}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-10-05","flag":false,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.0591,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"risk_band":"low","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-10-07T18:41:15.515241","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":51.88,"conformal_coverage":0.9150772025431426,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-10-07T18:34:00.122800+00:00","permalink":"https://api.voidly.ai/data/evidence/530587891","ref":"405582cfbc54a13b","signal_type":"block","source":"Voidly"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-07T18:18:38.681481+00:00","permalink":"https://api.voidly.ai/data/evidence/530587815","ref":"32176df85ab6876b","signal_type":"block","source":"Voidly"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-07T18:18:36.942676+00:00","permalink":"https://api.voidly.ai/data/evidence/530587814","ref":"1ec7adeff1671727","signal_type":"block","source":"Voidly"}],"interval_90":[0.0,0.4091],"model_version":"v1@2026-10-04T02:19:46.672537","probability":0.0591,"similar_incident":{"country":"NL","readable_id":"NL-2026-0029","severity":"critical","similarity":0.7038,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/NL-2026-0029"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.1137,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.0622,"direction":"up","name":"risk_tier","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0398,"direction":"down","name":"incident_count_7d","source":"model"}]}}