{"country":"RU","country_name":"Russia","drivers":["Russian State Duma Election 2026 in 24d","Russian State Duma Election 2026 in 27d","Russian State Duma Election 2026 in 30d","Russian State Duma Election 2026 in 28d","Russian State Duma Election 2026 in 25d"],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.03,"key_drivers":["Russian State Duma Election 2026 in 24d","Russian State Duma Election 2026 in 27d","Russian State Duma Election 2026 in 30d","Russian State Duma Election 2026 in 28d","Russian State Duma Election 2026 in 25d"],"max_risk":0.3908,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.055},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-08-19","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-08-20","day":1,"drivers":["Russian State Duma Election 2026 in 30d"],"risk":0.03},{"date":"2026-08-21","day":2,"drivers":["Russian State Duma Election 2026 in 29d"],"risk":0.016},{"date":"2026-08-22","day":3,"drivers":["Russian State Duma Election 2026 in 28d"],"risk":0.016},{"date":"2026-08-23","day":4,"drivers":["Russian State Duma Election 2026 in 27d"],"risk":0.027},{"date":"2026-08-24","day":5,"drivers":["Russian State Duma Election 2026 in 26d"],"risk":0.039},{"date":"2026-08-25","day":6,"drivers":["Russian State Duma Election 2026 in 25d"],"risk":0.051},{"date":"2026-08-26","day":7,"drivers":["Russian State Duma Election 2026 in 24d"],"risk":0.055}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-08-18","flag":false,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.3908,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"risk_band":"watch","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-08-19T19:30:43.928924","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":4.13,"conformal_coverage":0.9145090376160234,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-19T15:50:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/RU","ref":"ioda:alert:ping-slash24:region:3412:1787154600","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-19T13:10:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/RU","ref":"ioda:alert:ping-slash24:region:3412:1787145000","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-19T11:20:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/RU","ref":"ioda:alert:ping-slash24:region:3412:1787138400","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"}],"interval_90":[0.0408,0.7408],"model_version":"v1@2026-08-16T02:10:31.327087","probability":0.3908,"similar_incident":{"country":"RU","first_seen":"2026-08-19T05:40:00Z","incident_type":"disruption","readable_id":"RU-2026-3033","severity":"critical","similarity":null,"source":"sql_fallback","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/RU-2026-3033"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.1151,"direction":"down","name":"month","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0717,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.0546,"direction":"up","name":"critical_incident_7d","source":"model"}]},"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}