{"country":"RU","country_name":"Russia","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.623,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.5297,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.664},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-10-03","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.601},{"date":"2026-10-04","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.604},{"date":"2026-10-05","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.622},{"date":"2026-10-06","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.624},{"date":"2026-10-07","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.616},{"date":"2026-10-08","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.62},{"date":"2026-10-09","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.635},{"date":"2026-10-10","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.664}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-10-02","flag":false,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.5297,"recommended_threshold":0.65,"risk_band":"watch","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-10-03T23:56:16.899919","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":618.47,"conformal_coverage":0.9027522935779817,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-10-03T04:05:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/RU","ref":"ioda:alert:bgp:region:3443:1791000300","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-02T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=RU&test_name=http_header_field_manipulation&since=2026-10-02&until=2026-10-03&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:RU:http_header_field_manipulation:2026-10-02:18","signal_type":"header-manipulation","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-02T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=RU&test_name=http_invalid_request_line&since=2026-10-02&until=2026-10-03&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:RU:http_invalid_request_line:2026-10-02:18","signal_type":"middlebox-detection","source":"ooni"}],"interval_90":[0.1797,0.8797],"model_version":"v1@2026-09-27T02:11:03.341768","probability":0.5297,"similar_incident":{"country":"RU","readable_id":"RU-2026-3002","severity":"critical","similarity":0.7537,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/RU-2026-3002"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.1139,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.1108,"direction":"up","name":"critical_incident_7d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0899,"direction":"down","name":"high_urgency_signals_7d","source":"model"}]}}