{"country":"SY","country_name":"Syria","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.022,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.6822,"max_risk_day":6,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.043},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-07-05","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-07-06","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.02},{"date":"2026-07-07","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.017},{"date":"2026-07-08","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-07-09","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.034},{"date":"2026-07-10","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-07-11","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.043},{"date":"2026-07-12","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.036}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-07-04","flag":true,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.6822,"recommended_threshold":0.65,"risk_band":"elevated","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-07-05T15:52:20.154072","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":3.15,"conformal_coverage":0.9128461189287336,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-07-03T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=SY&test_name=facebook_messenger&since=2026-07-03&until=2026-07-03&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:SY:facebook_messenger:2026-07-03:18","signal_type":"blocking","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-07-03T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=SY&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-07-03&until=2026-07-03&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:SY:web_connectivity:2026-07-03:18","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-07-03T06:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=SY&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-07-03&until=2026-07-03&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:SY:web_connectivity:2026-07-03:06","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"}],"interval_90":[0.3322,1],"model_version":"v1@2026-06-07T02:14:25.651493","probability":0.6822,"similar_incident":{"country":"SY","first_seen":"2026-06-30T06:50:00Z","incident_type":"disruption","readable_id":"SY-2026-0200","severity":"critical","similarity":null,"source":"sql_fallback","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/SY-2026-0200"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0223,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.0111,"direction":"up","name":"gdelt_conflict_tone_7d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0058,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll7_std","source":"model"}]},"_voidly_pay":{"claim_did":"https://voidly.ai/pay/claim","for_builders":"https://voidly.ai/pay/for-builders","marketplace":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/marketplace","live_demo":"https://huggingface.co/spaces/emperor-mew/voidly-pay","universal_proxy":{"url":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy","example":"https://api.voidly.ai/v1/pay/proxy?u=<https-url>&to=did:voidly:<your-did>&price=0.01","page":"https://voidly.ai/pay/proxy","note":"Paywall any public HTTPS URL with one query param. No SDK install required."},"install":{"typescript":"npm install @voidly/pay","python":"pip install voidly-pay","langchain":"pip install voidly-pay-langchain","vercel_ai":"npm install @voidly/pay-vercel-ai","mcp":"npx @voidly/pay-mcp","cli":"npm install -g @voidly/pay-cli"},"note":"Voidly Pay is the open agent-to-agent payment rail. Claim a DID + 10 starter credits in 60s, or paywall any URL via the universal proxy with one query param."}}