{"country":"TG","country_name":"TG","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.019,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.0038,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.049},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-09-14","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-09-15","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-09-16","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.012},{"date":"2026-09-17","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.024},{"date":"2026-09-18","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.02},{"date":"2026-09-19","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.011},{"date":"2026-09-20","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.018},{"date":"2026-09-21","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.049}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-09-13","flag":false,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.0038,"recommended_threshold":0.675,"risk_band":"low","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-09-14T19:38:30.974296","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":62.99,"conformal_coverage":0.9002808988764045,"evidence_permalinks":[],"interval_90":[0.0,0.3538],"model_version":"v1@2026-09-13T02:10:51.286057","probability":0.0038,"similar_incident":{"country":"TG","readable_id":"TG-2025-0001","severity":"critical","similarity":0.6962,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/TG-2025-0001"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0434,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll7_mean","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0419,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_roll14_mean","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.0316,"direction":"up","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"}]}}