{"country":"TM","country_name":"Turkmenistan","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.016,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.0007,"max_risk_day":6,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.036},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-10-03","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-04","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-05","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-06","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.018},{"date":"2026-10-07","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.018},{"date":"2026-10-08","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-09","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.036},{"date":"2026-10-10","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.015}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-09-07","flag":false,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.0007,"recommended_threshold":0.65,"risk_band":"low","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-10-03T23:55:32.234459","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":1750.79,"conformal_coverage":0.9027522935779817,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-09-20T00:00:00Z","permalink":"https://dashboard.censoredplanet.org/?country=TM","ref":"cp:cenalert:TM:2026-09-20:2026-09-20","signal_type":"interference","source":"censoredplanet"}],"interval_90":[0.0,0.3507],"model_version":"v1@2026-09-27T02:11:03.341768","probability":0.0007,"similar_incident":{"country":"TM","readable_id":"TM-2026-0096","severity":"critical","similarity":0.7951,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/TM-2026-0096"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0335,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0287,"direction":"down","name":"month","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0207,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"}]}}