{"country":"TR","country_name":"Turkey","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.238,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.5781,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.257},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-10-04","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.225},{"date":"2026-10-05","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.229},{"date":"2026-10-06","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.243},{"date":"2026-10-07","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.246},{"date":"2026-10-08","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.23},{"date":"2026-10-09","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.234},{"date":"2026-10-10","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.237},{"date":"2026-10-11","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.257}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-10-02","flag":false,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.5781,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"risk_band":"watch","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-10-04T06:15:17.156322","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":111.62,"conformal_coverage":0.9150772025431426,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-10-02T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=TR&test_name=http_invalid_request_line&since=2026-10-02&until=2026-10-03&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:TR:http_invalid_request_line:2026-10-02:18","signal_type":"middlebox-detection","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-02T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=TR&test_name=facebook_messenger&since=2026-10-02&until=2026-10-03&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:TR:facebook_messenger:2026-10-02:18","signal_type":"blocking","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-02T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=TR&test_name=telegram&since=2026-10-02&until=2026-10-03&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:TR:telegram:2026-10-02:18","signal_type":"blocking","source":"ooni"}],"interval_90":[0.2281,0.9281],"model_version":"v1@2026-10-04T02:19:46.672537","probability":0.5781,"similar_incident":{"country":"TR","readable_id":"TR-2025-0004","severity":"warning","similarity":0.7687,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/TR-2025-0004"},"top_features":[{"contribution":0.1784,"direction":"up","name":"block_rate_lag3","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.1287,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_riots_7d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.1113,"direction":"down","name":"month","source":"model"}]}}