{"country":"UG","country_name":"Uganda","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.021,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.8154,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.034},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-10-06","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-07","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.01},{"date":"2026-10-08","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.015},{"date":"2026-10-09","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.021},{"date":"2026-10-10","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.03},{"date":"2026-10-11","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.02},{"date":"2026-10-12","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.027},{"date":"2026-10-13","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.034}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-10-05","flag":true,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.8154,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"risk_band":"elevated","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-10-06T12:07:13.463424","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":308.28,"conformal_coverage":0.9150772025431426,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-10-05T20:50:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/UG","ref":"ioda:alert:bgp:region:4267:1791233400","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-05T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=UG&test_name=facebook_messenger&since=2026-10-05&until=2026-10-06&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:UG:facebook_messenger:2026-10-05:18","signal_type":"blocking","source":"ooni"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-05T18:00:00Z","permalink":"https://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=UG&test_name=web_connectivity&since=2026-10-05&until=2026-10-06&only=anomalies","ref":"ooni:live:UG:web_connectivity:2026-10-05:18","signal_type":"interference","source":"ooni"}],"interval_90":[0.4654,1.0],"model_version":"v1@2026-10-04T02:19:46.672537","probability":0.8154,"similar_incident":{"country":"UG","readable_id":"UG-2026-0122","severity":"critical","similarity":0.798,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/UG-2026-0122"},"top_features":[{"contribution":-0.0567,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_unrest_30d","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0421,"direction":"down","name":"week_of_year","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.0372,"direction":"down","name":"block_rate_lag2","source":"model"}]}}