{"country":"VE","country_name":"Venezuela","drivers":[],"forecast_summary":{"avg_risk":0.246,"key_drivers":[],"max_risk":0.4055,"max_risk_day":6,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.27},"forecast_trajectory_note":"forecast_summary.max_risk + trust.probability are the validated honest 7-day event probability. forecast_window[] is the legacy v1 illustrative trajectory (NOT independently validated); max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior v1 headline.","forecast_window":[{"date":"2026-10-04","day":0,"drivers":[],"risk":0.243},{"date":"2026-10-05","day":1,"drivers":[],"risk":0.236},{"date":"2026-10-06","day":2,"drivers":[],"risk":0.238},{"date":"2026-10-07","day":3,"drivers":[],"risk":0.241},{"date":"2026-10-08","day":4,"drivers":[],"risk":0.238},{"date":"2026-10-09","day":5,"drivers":[],"risk":0.236},{"date":"2026-10-10","day":6,"drivers":[],"risk":0.27},{"date":"2026-10-11","day":7,"drivers":[],"risk":0.263}],"honest_forecast":{"as_of":"2026-10-03","flag":false,"is_headline_source":true,"probability":0.4055,"recommended_threshold":0.625,"risk_band":"watch","semantics":"probability of a censorship/connectivity EVENT in the next 7 days (country-relative z-score label)","validation":"Independent OONI-grounded + leakage-free. Rolling-origin AUC ~0.815, PR-AUC ~0.29; beats persistence/climatology in all 9 temporal folds; LOCO beats persistence 49/51 countries. See /v1/forecast/honest/info."},"issued_at":"2026-10-04T12:35:02.391398","model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","schema":"voidly-sentinel-current-risk/v1","trust":{"computed_in_ms":585.13,"conformal_coverage":0.9150772025431426,"evidence_permalinks":[{"observed_at":"2026-10-04T03:35:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/VE","ref":"ioda:alert:bgp:region:4504:1791084900","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-04T03:20:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/VE","ref":"ioda:alert:ping-slash24:region:4497:1791084000","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"},{"observed_at":"2026-10-04T02:30:00Z","permalink":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/VE","ref":"ioda:alert:ping-slash24:region:4501:1791081000","signal_type":"outage","source":"ioda"}],"interval_90":[0.0555,0.7555],"model_version":"v1@2026-10-04T02:19:46.672537","probability":0.4055,"similar_incident":{"country":"VE","readable_id":"VE-2026-1678","severity":"critical","similarity":0.7744,"source":"semantic","url":"https://voidly.ai/censorship-index/incidents/VE-2026-1678"},"top_features":[{"contribution":0.1862,"direction":"up","name":"recent_shutdown","source":"model"},{"contribution":0.1518,"direction":"up","name":"risk_tier","source":"model"},{"contribution":-0.1445,"direction":"down","name":"gdelt_protests_7d","source":"model"}]}}