{"countries":[{"above_threshold":true,"country":"UZ","country_name":"Uzbekistan","max_risk":0.8624,"max_risk_day":5,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.5753,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.8624,"risk_band":"elevated","threshold":0.675},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"ET","country_name":"Ethiopia","max_risk":0.8053,"max_risk_day":6,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.8643,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.8053,"risk_band":"elevated","threshold":0.675},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"PK","country_name":"Pakistan","max_risk":0.8042,"max_risk_day":0,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.95,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.8042,"risk_band":"elevated","threshold":0.675},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"SY","country_name":"Syria","max_risk":0.7991,"max_risk_day":6,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.8145,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.7991,"risk_band":"elevated","threshold":0.675},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"VE","country_name":"Venezuela","max_risk":0.7991,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.053,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.7991,"risk_band":"elevated","threshold":0.675},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"NG","country_name":"Nigeria","max_risk":0.7984,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.7816,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.7984,"risk_band":"elevated","threshold":0.675},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"BY","country_name":"Belarus","max_risk":0.776,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.8086,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.776,"risk_band":"elevated","threshold":0.675},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"EG","country_name":"Egypt","max_risk":0.7363,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.453,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.7363,"risk_band":"elevated","threshold":0.675},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"KZ","country_name":"Kazakhstan","max_risk":0.701,"max_risk_day":6,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.5778,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.701,"risk_band":"elevated","threshold":0.675},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"MM","country_name":"Myanmar","max_risk":0.6196,"max_risk_day":4,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.033,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.6196,"risk_band":"watch","threshold":0.675},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"SA","country_name":"Saudi Arabia","max_risk":0.6085,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.5985,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.6085,"risk_band":"watch","threshold":0.675},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"BR","country_name":"Brazil","max_risk":0.327,"max_risk_day":6,"probability":0.327,"threshold":0.05},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"CU","country_name":"Cuba","max_risk":0.3198,"max_risk_day":6,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.2228,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.3198,"risk_band":"low","threshold":0.675},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"SD","country_name":"Sudan","max_risk":0.1111,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.1111,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.1111,"risk_band":"low","threshold":0.675},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"VN","country_name":"Vietnam","max_risk":0.1026,"max_risk_day":6,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.047,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.1026,"risk_band":"low","threshold":0.675},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"RU","country_name":"Russia","max_risk":0.0763,"max_risk_day":5,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.651,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.0763,"risk_band":"low","threshold":0.675},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"NI","country_name":"Nicaragua","max_risk":0.054,"max_risk_day":7,"probability":0.054,"threshold":0.275},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"ER","country_name":"Eritrea","max_risk":0.048,"max_risk_day":7,"probability":0.048,"threshold":0.05},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"MY","country_name":"Malaysia","max_risk":0.045,"max_risk_day":7,"probability":0.045,"threshold":0.225},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"LB","country_name":"Lebanon","max_risk":0.045,"max_risk_day":6,"probability":0.045,"threshold":0.35},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"KP","country_name":"North Korea","max_risk":0.044,"max_risk_day":5,"probability":0.044,"threshold":0.05},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"IR","country_name":"Iran","max_risk":0.03,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.285,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.03,"risk_band":"low","threshold":0.675},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"PH","country_name":"Philippines","max_risk":0.03,"max_risk_day":4,"probability":0.03,"threshold":0.05},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"CN","country_name":"China","max_risk":0.0146,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.055,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.0146,"risk_band":"low","threshold":0.675},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"BD","country_name":"Bangladesh","max_risk":0.0116,"max_risk_day":6,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.271,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.0116,"risk_band":"low","threshold":0.675},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"TR","country_name":"Turkey","max_risk":0.0092,"max_risk_day":6,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.274,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.0092,"risk_band":"low","threshold":0.675},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"IN","country_name":"India","max_risk":0.0055,"max_risk_day":4,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.257,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.0055,"risk_band":"low","threshold":0.675},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"TH","country_name":"Thailand","max_risk":0.0024,"max_risk_day":4,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.032,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.0024,"risk_band":"low","threshold":0.675},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"TM","country_name":"Turkmenistan","max_risk":0.0005,"max_risk_day":4,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.0005,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.0005,"risk_band":"low","threshold":0.675},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"ID","country_name":"Indonesia","max_risk":0.0004,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.288,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.0004,"risk_band":"low","threshold":0.675}],"eval_date":"2026-09-21","honest_caveat":"Ranked by the independently-validated, leakage-free honest forecast (rolling-origin AUC ~0.815) for covered countries \u2014 agrees with each country's /v1/forecast/<cc>/7day headline. max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior sentinel value. above_threshold uses the honest operating threshold (~0.675). See /v1/forecast/honest/info.","n":30,"schema":"voidly-sentinel-heatmap/v1"}
