{"countries":[{"above_threshold":true,"country":"ET","country_name":"Ethiopia","max_risk":0.8244,"max_risk_day":6,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.8244,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.8244,"risk_band":"elevated","threshold":0.625},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"PK","country_name":"Pakistan","max_risk":0.8237,"max_risk_day":6,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.8237,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.8237,"risk_band":"elevated","threshold":0.625},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"SY","country_name":"Syria","max_risk":0.8141,"max_risk_day":6,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.8141,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.8141,"risk_band":"elevated","threshold":0.625},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"EG","country_name":"Egypt","max_risk":0.7599,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.7599,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.7599,"risk_band":"elevated","threshold":0.625},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"SA","country_name":"Saudi Arabia","max_risk":0.7533,"max_risk_day":6,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.7533,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.7533,"risk_band":"elevated","threshold":0.625},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"UZ","country_name":"Uzbekistan","max_risk":0.7302,"max_risk_day":6,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.7302,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.7302,"risk_band":"elevated","threshold":0.625},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"KZ","country_name":"Kazakhstan","max_risk":0.6924,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.6924,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.6924,"risk_band":"elevated","threshold":0.625},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"VN","country_name":"Vietnam","max_risk":0.6335,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.6335,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.6335,"risk_band":"elevated","threshold":0.625},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"IR","country_name":"Iran","max_risk":0.6274,"max_risk_day":3,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.6274,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.6274,"risk_band":"elevated","threshold":0.625},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"MM","country_name":"Myanmar","max_risk":0.6103,"max_risk_day":7,"max_risk_v1_leaky":0.6103,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","probability":0.6103,"risk_band":"watch","threshold":0.625}],"eval_date":"2026-10-24","honest_caveat":"Ranked by honest_forecast_v1, an EXPERIMENTAL score: its historical rolling-origin AUC (~0.815) did not hold in live use (recent monthly live AUC 0.26-0.29, worse than chance). No proven onset-timing skill; do not cite it as a forecast. Re-evaluation: B1602 (2026-10). max_risk_v1_leaky retains the prior sentinel value. above_threshold uses the model operating threshold (~0.675), which is not a validated alert threshold.","n":10,"schema":"voidly-sentinel-heatmap/v1"}