{"days_compared":7,"latest_date":"2026-09-21","min_abs":0.02,"min_today_risk":0.0,"movers_down":[{"above_threshold":false,"country":"MM","country_name":"Myanmar","delta":-0.6163,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","prior_risk":0.6493,"threshold":0.675,"today_max_day":4,"today_risk":0.6196,"today_risk_v1":0.033},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"EG","country_name":"Egypt","delta":-0.3772,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","prior_risk":0.8302,"threshold":0.675,"today_max_day":7,"today_risk":0.7363,"today_risk_v1":0.453},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"VE","country_name":"Venezuela","delta":-0.3701,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","prior_risk":0.4231,"threshold":0.675,"today_max_day":7,"today_risk":0.7991,"today_risk_v1":0.053},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"LB","country_name":"Lebanon","delta":-0.227,"model_version":"v1","prior_risk":0.272,"threshold":0.35,"today_max_day":6,"today_risk":0.045,"today_risk_v1":0.045},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"NI","country_name":"Nicaragua","delta":-0.119,"model_version":"v1","prior_risk":0.173,"threshold":0.275,"today_max_day":7,"today_risk":0.054,"today_risk_v1":0.054},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"BY","country_name":"Belarus","delta":-0.0665,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","prior_risk":0.8751,"threshold":0.675,"today_max_day":7,"today_risk":0.776,"today_risk_v1":0.8086},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"CU","country_name":"Cuba","delta":-0.0507,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","prior_risk":0.2735,"threshold":0.675,"today_max_day":6,"today_risk":0.3198,"today_risk_v1":0.2228},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"VN","country_name":"Vietnam","delta":-0.0448,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","prior_risk":0.0918,"threshold":0.675,"today_max_day":6,"today_risk":0.1026,"today_risk_v1":0.047},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"SY","country_name":"Syria","delta":-0.0417,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","prior_risk":0.8562,"threshold":0.675,"today_max_day":6,"today_risk":0.7991,"today_risk_v1":0.8145},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"PH","country_name":"Philippines","delta":-0.022,"model_version":"v1","prior_risk":0.052,"threshold":0.05,"today_max_day":4,"today_risk":0.03,"today_risk_v1":0.03}],"movers_up":[{"above_threshold":false,"country":"RU","country_name":"Russia","delta":0.6413,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","prior_risk":0.0097,"threshold":0.675,"today_max_day":5,"today_risk":0.0763,"today_risk_v1":0.651},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"ID","country_name":"Indonesia","delta":0.2841,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","prior_risk":0.0039,"threshold":0.675,"today_max_day":7,"today_risk":0.0004,"today_risk_v1":0.288},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"TR","country_name":"Turkey","delta":0.2643,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","prior_risk":0.0097,"threshold":0.675,"today_max_day":6,"today_risk":0.0092,"today_risk_v1":0.274},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"BD","country_name":"Bangladesh","delta":0.2583,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","prior_risk":0.0127,"threshold":0.675,"today_max_day":6,"today_risk":0.0116,"today_risk_v1":0.271},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"IN","country_name":"India","delta":0.2499,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","prior_risk":0.0071,"threshold":0.675,"today_max_day":4,"today_risk":0.0055,"today_risk_v1":0.257},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"PK","country_name":"Pakistan","delta":0.2019,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","prior_risk":0.7481,"threshold":0.675,"today_max_day":0,"today_risk":0.8042,"today_risk_v1":0.95},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"IR","country_name":"Iran","delta":0.1426,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","prior_risk":0.1424,"threshold":0.675,"today_max_day":7,"today_risk":0.03,"today_risk_v1":0.285},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"SA","country_name":"Saudi Arabia","delta":0.0967,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","prior_risk":0.5018,"threshold":0.675,"today_max_day":7,"today_risk":0.6085,"today_risk_v1":0.5985},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"ET","country_name":"Ethiopia","delta":0.0862,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","prior_risk":0.7781,"threshold":0.675,"today_max_day":6,"today_risk":0.8053,"today_risk_v1":0.8643},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"SD","country_name":"Sudan","delta":0.0801,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","prior_risk":0.031,"threshold":0.675,"today_max_day":7,"today_risk":0.1111,"today_risk_v1":0.1111},{"above_threshold":true,"country":"UZ","country_name":"Uzbekistan","delta":0.0737,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","prior_risk":0.5016,"threshold":0.675,"today_max_day":5,"today_risk":0.8624,"today_risk_v1":0.5753},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"CN","country_name":"China","delta":0.0417,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","prior_risk":0.0133,"threshold":0.675,"today_max_day":7,"today_risk":0.0146,"today_risk_v1":0.055},{"above_threshold":false,"country":"TH","country_name":"Thailand","delta":0.0264,"model_version":"honest_forecast_v1","prior_risk":0.0056,"threshold":0.675,"today_max_day":4,"today_risk":0.0024,"today_risk_v1":0.032}],"n_total_countries":30,"note":"today_risk = the validated honest 7-day event probability (matches /v1/sentinel/global_heatmap + /v1/forecast/<cc>/7day) where covered; today_risk_v1 + prior_risk + delta are the v1 forecast trajectory \u2014 delta measures MOVEMENT on a consistent basis (historical honest snapshots are not stored). above_threshold uses the honest operating threshold (~0.625) for covered countries.","prior_date":"2026-09-14","schema":"voidly-sentinel-movers/v1"}