{"as_of":"2026-10-03T04:30:02.435071Z","country_code":"IR","covered":true,"current":{"as_of":"2026-05-23","country_code":"IR","days_stale":133,"elevated":false,"historical_auc":0.442,"historical_r":-0.025,"protest_zscore":0.26},"historical":{"auc":0.442,"country_code":"IR","days_stale":133,"latest_date":"2026-05-23","latest_zscore":0.26,"n_days":1774,"n_shutdowns_in_window":34,"pearson_p":0.2882,"pearson_r":-0.025,"significant":false},"honest_caveats":["GDELT counts news mentions, not actual protest events \u2014 a spike could be coverage of another country's protest.","Per-country z-score baseline is only 30 days; sparse-news countries get inflated z-scores from low baseline variance.","Shutdown labels are confirmed-censorship incidents only; IODA-only disruptions are excluded (could be over-counted as shutdowns triggered by non-protest causes)."],"interpretation":"Country IR has 34 confirmed shutdowns in the 2026-01-20..present window. Pearson r between protest z-score and 'shutdown in next 48h' is -0.025 (p=0.288, AUC=0.442). NOT statistically significant \u2014 treat as supporting signal only.","schema":"voidly-pre-protest-signal/v1"}