{"as_of":"2026-10-03T04:30:02.435071Z","country_code":"NG","covered":true,"current":{"as_of":"2026-10-02","country_code":"NG","days_stale":1,"elevated":false,"historical_auc":0.489,"historical_r":0.053,"protest_zscore":-1.048},"historical":{"auc":0.489,"country_code":"NG","days_stale":1,"latest_date":"2026-10-02","latest_zscore":-1.048,"n_days":174,"n_shutdowns_in_window":31,"pearson_p":0.4857,"pearson_r":0.053,"significant":false},"honest_caveats":["GDELT counts news mentions, not actual protest events \u2014 a spike could be coverage of another country's protest.","Per-country z-score baseline is only 30 days; sparse-news countries get inflated z-scores from low baseline variance.","Shutdown labels are confirmed-censorship incidents only; IODA-only disruptions are excluded (could be over-counted as shutdowns triggered by non-protest causes)."],"interpretation":"Country NG has 31 confirmed shutdowns in the 2026-01-20..present window. Pearson r between protest z-score and 'shutdown in next 48h' is +0.053 (p=0.486, AUC=0.489). NOT statistically significant \u2014 treat as supporting signal only.","schema":"voidly-pre-protest-signal/v1"}