{"as_of":"2026-10-03T04:30:02.435071Z","country_code":"RU","covered":true,"current":{"as_of":"2026-10-01","country_code":"RU","days_stale":2,"elevated":false,"historical_auc":0.487,"historical_r":0.022,"protest_zscore":-1.53},"historical":{"auc":0.487,"country_code":"RU","days_stale":2,"latest_date":"2026-10-01","latest_zscore":-1.53,"n_days":1858,"n_shutdowns_in_window":156,"pearson_p":0.3354,"pearson_r":0.022,"significant":false},"honest_caveats":["GDELT counts news mentions, not actual protest events \u2014 a spike could be coverage of another country's protest.","Per-country z-score baseline is only 30 days; sparse-news countries get inflated z-scores from low baseline variance.","Shutdown labels are confirmed-censorship incidents only; IODA-only disruptions are excluded (could be over-counted as shutdowns triggered by non-protest causes)."],"interpretation":"Country RU has 156 confirmed shutdowns in the 2026-01-20..present window. Pearson r between protest z-score and 'shutdown in next 48h' is +0.022 (p=0.335, AUC=0.487). NOT statistically significant \u2014 treat as supporting signal only.","schema":"voidly-pre-protest-signal/v1"}