{"as_of":"2026-10-05T04:30:04.171700Z","country_code":"SA","covered":true,"current":{"as_of":"2026-10-02","country_code":"SA","days_stale":3,"elevated":false,"historical_auc":0.596,"historical_r":0.128,"protest_zscore":0.105},"historical":{"auc":0.596,"country_code":"SA","days_stale":3,"latest_date":"2026-10-02","latest_zscore":0.105,"n_days":179,"n_shutdowns_in_window":109,"pearson_p":0.0858,"pearson_r":0.128,"significant":false},"honest_caveats":["GDELT counts news mentions, not actual protest events \u2014 a spike could be coverage of another country's protest.","Per-country z-score baseline is only 30 days; sparse-news countries get inflated z-scores from low baseline variance.","Shutdown labels are confirmed-censorship incidents only; IODA-only disruptions are excluded (could be over-counted as shutdowns triggered by non-protest causes)."],"interpretation":"Country SA has 109 confirmed shutdowns in the 2026-01-20..present window. Pearson r between protest z-score and 'shutdown in next 48h' is +0.128 (p=0.086, AUC=0.596). NOT statistically significant \u2014 treat as supporting signal only.","schema":"voidly-pre-protest-signal/v1"}